Nuggets vs. Clippers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 6

The Nuggets are 10-8 against the spread as road underdogs this season.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a great prop target in Game 6. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets took control of their first-round series with the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday night, winning by double-digits at home behind a 43-point game from Jamal Murray.

Now, Denver is set as a road underdog in Game 6 against a Clippers squad that went 1-1 at home in this series but posted the best against the spread record as a home favorite in the NBA during the regular season.

This series has been hard fought, with Los Angeles winning big in Game 3 and Denver winning big in Game 5. Every other game in this matchup has gone down to the wire, and NBA fans should be in for quite the matchup on Thursday night.

Denver’s lack of depth has been a cause for concern in this series, but Jokic and the Nuggets have gotten elite play out of their starters and some big games from sixth man Russell Westbrook. Will that be enough to end this series in L.A.?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 6.

Nuggets vs. Clippers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Nuggets +6.5 (-105)
• Clippers -6.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Nuggets: +230
• Clippers: -285

Total

• 211 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nuggets vs. Clippers How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, May 1
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Intuit Dome
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Series: Nuggets lead 3-2

Nuggets vs. Clippers Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

• DaRon Holmes II -- out

Clippers Injury Report

• None to report

Nuggets vs. Clippers Best NBA Prop Bets

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists (-125)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jokic is an elite prop target on Thursday: 

Any time oddsmakers are willing to set Jokic at a number that is less than 10.5 assists, I’m going to bet the OVER.

Jokic has cashed this prop for us multiple times in this series, picking up 10 or more dimes in four of five games. In addition to that, he is averaging a downright insane 20.0 potential assists per game against Los Angeles.

So, Jokic just needs to convert half of those to clear this prop for us on Thursday night.

During the regular season, Jokic averaged a triple-double, and the ball is always going to be in his hands for Denver on offense. He’s also put up huge assist totals early in games as of late, which also gives bettors a chance to hedge – if they want – on his live line.

This is a no-brainer for me on Thursday. 

Los Angeles Clippers Best NBA Prop Bet

• James Harden UNDER 9.5 Assists (-130)

Harden is averaging 8.6 assists per game in this series, but he’s cleared 9.5 dimes on just two occasions. The Clippers star is also averaging 13.4 potential assists per game, but that doesn’t give him much wiggle room when it comes to this prop.

Denver held Harden to just five dimes in Game 5, and he’s turned the ball over eight times over the last two games (both L.A. losses). I’m not sold on Harden picking up double-digit assists in this matchup. 

Nuggets vs. Clippers Prediction and Pick

Even though the Clippers have been dominant against the spread at home in this series, I’m taking the points with Denver here.

Three of the five games in this matchup have been decided by one possession, and the Clippers – even though they dominated in Game 3 – fell behind big in both Game 4 and Game 5. 

Los Angeles is the deeper team, but Jokic and Murray have been playing at an elite level in this series. Jokic is averaging a triple-double while Murray has scored 21 or more points in four of the five games in this matchup.

While the Clippers have the talent to compete with Denver – and they may force a Game 7 – I am not buying that they should be favored by 6.5 points on Thursday. To Denver’s credit, it is 10-8 against the spread as a road underdog this season.

If Jokic is able to control the game with his passing like he has in Games 4 and 5, the Clippers simply aren’t going to win this game in blowout fashion. And, after a poor defensive showing (where they’ve been elite all season) in Game 5, I have a hard time not taking the points in Game 6. 

Pick: Nuggets +6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.