Nuggets vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets for Game 5 (Fade Jalen Williams, Trust Aaron Gordon)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Denver Nuggets-Oklahoma City Thunder matchup in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals.

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams is a potential fade candidate in Game 5. / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

The Denver Nuggets-Oklahoma City Thunder series has been a wild one, as these teams have traded games and played some high-scoring affairs, and an incredibly low-scoring affair (Game 4) through four matchups.

So, I’d much rather focus on the player prop market for some of my best bets on Tuesday night.

On the OKC side, I’m looking to fade one of their secondary options in this game as a scorer, as Jalen Williams has not been great overall in these playoffs. However, there is a Thunder big man that is worth betting on in this matchup.

On the Nuggets side, Aaron Gordon has shown why he is one of top – if not the best – role players in the NBA this postseason. Can he clear his 3-point prop for the fifth straight game on Tuesday night?

Let’s dive into the breakdowns for each of these picks in Game 5. 

Best NBA Prop Bets for Nuggets vs. Thunder

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Jalen Williams UNDER 21.5 Points (-120)
• Aaron Gordon OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+100)
• Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-140)

Jalen Williams UNDER 21.5 Points (-120)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jalen Williams is overvalued in Game 5: 

Thunder All-Star Jalen scored 20 or more points in each of his first four games in the first round of the playoffs, but he has cooled off in the second round against Denver:

• Game 1: 16 points (5-of-20 FG, 2-of-9 3P)
• Game 2: 17 points (6-of-11 FG, 0-of-3 3P)
• Game 3: 32 points (11-of-21 FG, 3-of-7 3P)
• Game 4: 10 points (2-of-13 FG, 0-of-5 3P)

Not only is Williams’ usage fluctuating, but he’s been extremely inefficient, shooting 36.9 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from 3 against Denver.

While the Thunder need him if they want to win a title, I don’t think his 32-point, 11-for-21 outburst in Game 3 is anything that bettors should trust going forward. Williams has made just 13 shots in his three other games combined.

He’s overvalued at this points prop in Game 5. 

Aaron Gordon OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+100)

So far in the nuggets-Thunder series, Gordon is shooting 12-for-22 from beyond the arc (54.5 percent) and has attempted six or more shots from deep in three of the four games in the series.

Overall, Gordon has cleared this prop in every game, so it’s shocking to see him at even money to do it again in Game 5, especially since he attempted a series-high seven shots from deep in Game 4.

This season, Gordon really improved as a shooter, knocking down 43.6 percent of his attempts from deep during the regular season. At this price, he’s extremely undervalued since Denver is playing all of its starters heavy minutes each and every night this postseason. 

Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-140)

So far this postseason, Isaiah Hartenstein had 76 rebounds in eight games, and he’s picked up nine or more boards in three of his four games against Denver.

Hartenstein is set at 8.5 boards in Game 5, but he’s been arguably the best defender OKC has had on Nikola Jokic, and he’s coming off back-to-back games with double-digit boards. 

In the playoffs, Hartenstein is averaging a whopping 18.6 rebound chances per game, meaning he needs to grab less than half of those to clear this line.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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