Nuggets vs. Thunder Opening Series Odds, Prediction and Preview (OKC Massively Favored)

Breaking down the odds and a prediction for the second-round series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets.

The Thunder are favored to beat the Nuggets in the second round. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Can the Oklahoma City Thunder remain undefeated in the NBA playoffs? 

OKC dominated the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, pulling off a sweep, and it’s been off for quite some time waiting for its second-round opponent. Well, the Denver Nuggets answered that call on Saturday night, blowing out the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 7 to advance. 

This series is going to be a quick turnaround for the Nuggets, as they will play Game 1 against OKC on Monday evening, about 48 hours after securing their Game 7 win.

The Thunder are massive favorites at home in Game 1 – and to win this series overall – even though these teams split their four regular season matchups.

There are a ton of storylines to watch, including the fact that the two top candidates for the league’s MVP – Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – are facing off. 

Here’s a look at the opening series odds, trends and keys to watch and my prediction for this second-round matchup. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Series Odds

• Denver: +500
• Oklahoma City: -700

Nuggets vs. Thunder Correct Score Odds

• Thunder in 5: +230
• Thunder in 4: +230
• Thunder in 6: +450
• Thunder in 7: +500
• Nuggets in 6: +1300
• Nuggets in 7: +1400
• Nuggets in 5: +3000
• Nuggets in 4: +4500

Nuggets vs. Thunder Series Preview

This series is going to be a major test for Denver’s depth – or lack thereof – as the Nuggets have basically been getting away with playing six players (and the occasional Peyton Watson or DeAndre Jordan minutes) in the postseason.

Plus, Michael Porter Jr. has a sprained shoulder that he won’t have much time to rest with such a quick turnaround for Game 1. 

This season, OKC dominated just about everyone, winning 68 games while posting the best net rating in the NBA (and a historic one at that). The Thunder also posted the best defensive rating in the NBA in the regular season while Denver was outside of the top 15 in the league in that statistic.

From a betting perspective, OKC was the best team in the NBA at home, going 35-6 straight up while covering the spread at a 29-12-2 clip when favored. OKC is a nine-point favorite at Paycom Center in Game 1. 

Still, there are some in-game questions to answer on both sides. 

Can OKC get enough secondary scoring to survive when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out of the game? Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams stepped up in the first round, but things will get a lot tougher against Jokic and Denver.

Can the Nuggets survive with such a short rotation against an OKC team that is deep and has plenty of wing defenders to harass Jamal Murray? The Nuggets have made things work before because of Jokic’s greatness, but the margin for error for Denver is extremely slim, as it showed in the first round with the Clippers.

OKC has the depth to throw a ton of different looks at Denver, and the two-big lineups of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren allow the Thunder to play a rim protector on Aaron Gordon while also guarding Jokic with a big man. OKC was 16-4 in the regular season in the 20 games it played with both bigs in action. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma City is currently favored to win the title at +130, so it’s not surprising that oddsmakers have the Thunder winning the series as the four most-likely outcomes in this matchup.

After Denver struggled with a tough Clippers team, OKC is just a step up across the board, as it ranks first in defensive, first in net rating, first in assist/turnover ratio, seventh in effective field goal percentage and third in offensive rating. 

Counting out Jokic is tough to do, but the Nuggets just may not have enough in this series to compete with the Thunder night-to-night. Denver is already shorthanded due to poor roster building, and the Porter Jr. injury gives the Nuggets one less player that they can count on to have big games every night. MPJ was up and down in the first-round series with the Clippers, although he came alive in the second half of Game 7. 

The Thunder should be able to get just about whatever they want against this Denver defense, which lacks an elite perimeter defender to deal with SGA. Christian Braun is solid, but the options after him are very limited.

Plus, the Nuggets don’t shoot or make a ton of 3-pointers, so they’re going to rely a lot on trading 2-pointers against this Thunder squad. OKC had one scare against Memphis, but overall it had no problems in the first round, posting a net rating of +19.8.

Unless SGA has a down shooting series, I don’t see the Nuggets picking off more than a game or two from the title favorites. 

Pick: Thunder to win series, Thunder in 6 (+450 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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