Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, March 10

The Thunder are 20-10-2 against the spread at home this season.

The Thunder are 20-10-2 against the spread at home this season. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Denver Nuggets’ time back in the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference was short-lived, as they lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday afternoon.

Denver was able to keep things close for a lot of the game, but OKC pulled away in the fourth quarter behind a massive 40-point game from MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Nuggets also lost forward Aaron Gordon to yet another injury on Sunday, an ominous sign for them going forward. 

These teams have a quick turnaround, as they’ll play for the fourth and final time this regular season on Monday night. OKC has a chance to clinch the season series with a win, while Denver could jump back up into the No. 2 spot in the West with a win and a Los Angeles Lakers loss.

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for this Western Conference showdown. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Nuggets +10.5 (-105)
• Thunder -10.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Nuggets: +400
• Thunder: -535

Total

• 235.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Nuggets vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Monday, March 10
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
• Nuggets record: 41-23
• Thunder record: 53-11

Nuggets vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

• Aaron Gordon – out
• DaRon Holmes  II – out
• Nikola Jokic – questionable
• Jamal Murray – questionable
• Zeke Nnaji – probable
• Julian Strawther – out

Thunder Injury Report

• Branden Carlson – out
• Alex Ducas – out
• Adam Flagler – out
• Nikola Topic – out
• Ajay Mitchell – out
• Isaiah Hartenstein – available
• Dillon Jones – probable

Nuggets vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-135)

This season, Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 11.3 rebounds per game, and he’s cleared this line in 11 of his last 19 games.

Hartenstein had 11 boards against Denver on Sunday, and he should see yet another big workload since he was the primary defender at times on Nikola Jokic. The Thunder need Hartenstein’s size against The Joker, and he’s been a menace on the glass all season, averaging 19.8 rebound chances per game. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma City blew out the Nuggets on Sunday, and now Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are both questionable, and Aaron Gordon is out. 

The Thunder have been dominant at home this season, and it’s worth noting that both of their wins against Denver have come by 15 or more points. OKC is 20-10-2 against the spread at home in the 2024-25 season.

Denver won’t have a chance in this game if Jokic sits, and today’s injury report confirms that he did injure his elbow in the loss on Sunday. 

Denver’s lack of depth – especially without Gordon – makes them tough to trust against a healthy OKC team. 

I’ll lay the points with the Thunder in this one. 

Pick: Thunder -10.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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