Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 5

The Thunder are massive favorites in Game 5.

The Nuggets are 10-point underdogs in Game 5. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets came up short on Sunday in Game 4 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, squandering a lead and a chance to take a 3-1 series lead in the Western Conference semifinals. 

Now, the Thunder and Nuggets are playing a best-of-three with this series knotted at two games apiece.

Oklahoma City has not looked nearly as dominant in this series as it did during the regular season, but oddsmakers have the Thunder favored by 10 points at home in Game 5.

The last time these teams played at Paycom Center (Game 2), OKC won by 43 points. 

The Nuggets are running on fumes, as they haven’t had an extended rest since early in their first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers and are playing a rather short rotation in the playoffs.

Can Jokic and company pull off another upset on the road to take control of this matchup? The winner of Game 5 will undoubtedly be in a better position to win this series, and based on the Thunder’s title odds (they’re the current favorite) oddsmakers are expecting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company to pull through in this game. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Nuggets +10 (-112)
• Thunder -10 (-108)

Moneyline

• Nuggets: +330
• Thunder: -425

Total

• 221 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nuggets vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, May 13
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST 
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Series: Tied 2-2

Nuggets vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

• DaRon Holmes II – out
• Hunter Tyson – out

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic -- out

Nuggets vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Nikola Jokic UNDER 8.5 Assists (-115)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Nikola Jokic is a fade candidate in Game 5: 

Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic has struggled mightily with his playmaking against Oklahoma City, dishing out just 21 assists to 23 turnovers in four games in this series.

Now, Jokic is set a 8.5 assists in Game 5 – a number that he hasn’t cleared in six straight playoff games. That’s right, the last time Jokic had over 8.5 assists came in Game 5 of the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers. 

As great a Jokic is with his passing, I can’t get behind him at this price. He’s failed to clear 6 assists in a single game in this series, and he’s averaging just 13.5 potential assists per game against OKC.

For comparison, Jokic averaged 16.5 potential assists per game in the regular season and 16.5 per game overall in the playoffs. He’s seen a major drop off in this series, and I’ll continue to bet the UNDER until he starts to figure out this No. 1 OKC defense. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-140)

So far this postseason, Isaiah Hartenstein had 76 rebounds in eight games, and he’s picked up nine or more boards in three of his four games against Denver.

Hartenstein is set at 8.5 boards in Game 5, but he’s been arguably the best defender OKC has had on Nikola Jokic, and he’s coming off back-to-back games with double-digit boards. 

In the playoffs, Hartenstein is averaging a whopping 18.6 rebound chances per game, meaning he needs to grab less than half of those to clear this line. This is an easy bet for me in Game 5. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Even though they’re playing about six guys every night, I can’t quit this Denver team.

Not only are the Nuggets 11-9-1 against the spread as road underdogs this season, but they have wins in Los Angeles and OKC – two of the best teams against the spread as home favorites in the NBA. 

Denver has gotten blown out a couple of times in the playoffs (Game 3 against LAC and Game 2 against OKC), but for the most part it has played a ton of close games and clutch-time games.

If there is one knock on the Thunder, it’s that they haven’t executed in clutch time very well this season, and they failed to cover in Game 4 despite leading by seven in the final minute. 

OKC is certainly a much better team at home, but the Nuggets have hung around in these games despite terrible games from Nikola Jokic both from an efficiency standpoint shooting the ball and a turnover standpoint. 

10 points feels like a few too many for a series that has been closely contested to this point. 

Pick: Nuggets +10 (-112 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

---

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.