Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 1

The Thunder are an impressive 29-12-2 against the spread when favored at home this season.

The Thunder are an impressive 29-12-2 against the spread when favored at home this season. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder are favored to win the NBA Finals, and they have an interesting second-round matchup with the Denver Nuggets, starting on Monday night.

This matchup features the two top MVP candidates from the regular season – SGA and Nikola Jokic – and that’s not the only storyline.

These teams played four times during the regular season since they’re in the same division, splitting those matchups. Plus, just last season it was the Thunder that edged out the Nuggets for the No. 1 seed in the West. 

OKC finished the regular season with the best net rating and defensive rating in the NBA, and it went on to sweep the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, posting a +19.8 net rating in that series.

Denver, on the other hand, went the distance with the Los Angeles Clippers in the opening round, winning Game 7 on Saturday night to advance. 

Here’s a breakdown of Game 1 of this series, including the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Nuggets +9 (-110)
• Thunder -9 (-110)

Moneyline

• Nuggets: +330
• Thunder: -425

Total

• 224.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nuggets vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 5
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Series: Tied 0-0

Nuggets vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

• DaRon Holmes II -- out
  

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic -- out
  

Nuggets vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Russell Westbrook OVER 10.5 Points (-105)

This postseason, Westbrook has played a huge role for the Nuggets, and it could end up being even bigger if Michael Porter Jr. struggles or is limited by his shoulder injury.

Westbrook scored 11 or more points in all five games that he was able to play in and complete against the Clippers, averaging 16.0 points per game in those contests.

The minutes will be there for Westbrook since Denver is playing such a shortened rotation, and he’s taken 10 or more shots in four of his playoff games. I think this is a perfect spot to buy low on the veteran guard – even against a tough OKC defense.  

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Isaiah Hartenstein to Record a Double-Double (+270)

This season, Isaiah Hartenstein averaged a double-double (11.2 points, 10.7 rebounds) across 57 games, yet he’s nearly 3/1 to complete the feat on Monday.

In his two matchups with Denver, Hartenstein had one double-double, but he also posted a 20-point, seven-rebound game. The Thunder need Hartenstein to play major minutes on Nikola Jokic, and he should be in the mix for this prop after averaging 9.0 points and 8.8 rebounds per game against Memphis. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

OKC is a massive favorite in Game 1 for good reason.

The Thunder are an NBA best 29-12-2 against the spread when favored at home this season, and they were also 11-5-1 against the spread when they had a rest advantage.

This OKC team is not only fresh, but it has a way deeper bench than Denver. The Nuggets are essentially playing six games at the moment – there are some spot minutes for DeAndre Jordan and Peyton Watson – and they have a short turnaround after a wild seven-game series with the Clippers.

Denver, like most teams, has struggled with a rest disadvantage this season (11-12 against the spread), and it has not held up on the defensive end since the All-Star break, ranking 23rd in the league in defensive rating.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are notorious playoff stars, but this is a tall task to go on the road and beat the best team in the NBA. The Thunder should be rested and healthy while the Nuggets dealt with injuries to Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook in the first round. 

Even though OKC had some anxious moments in Game 3 against Memphis, it rolled through that series without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing at his best. Denver lacks the perimeter defenders to deal with SGA (outside of Christian Braun), and OKC has been too good at home this season (37-6 overall) for me to fade it in Game 1. 

Pick: Thunder -9 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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