Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 2

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Denver Nuggets-Oklahoma City Thunder matchup in Game 2 of the NBA playoffs.

Will the OVER hit in Game 2? / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Denver Nuggets pulled off a massive upset win in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Denver, which trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter, stormed back late in the game and benefitted from a pair of missed free throws by Chet Holmgren that set up an Aaron Gordon game-winning 3-pointer with under three seconds left.

Despite being set as a huge underdog entering this series, Denver now has home-court advantage and has seen its odds to win the NBA Finals skyrocket in the process. 

Still, oddsmakers are expecting the Thunder to take Game 2, setting them as 11-point favorites at home. OKC was one of the best teams in the NBA as a home favorite during the regular season, and it won two games at home against Memphis in the first round in convincing fashion.

Can Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company show that Game 1 was a fluke and that OKC’s historic net rating in the regular season will carry into the playoffs?

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 2. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Nuggets +11 (-110)
• Thunder -11 (-110)

Moneyline

• Nuggets: +400
• Thunder: -535

Total

• 230 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nuggets vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, May 7
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Series: Nuggets lead 1-0

Nuggets vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

• DaRon Holmes II -- out
  

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic -- out
  

Nuggets vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Nikola Jokic OVER 21.5 Rebounds and Assists (-125)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jokic should easily clear this combo prop on Wednesday:

In Game 1 against OKC, Jokic only needed rebounds (he had 22) to clear this prop line, so why not take a shot on his rebounds and assists prop in Game 2?

During the regular season, Jokic had 22 or more rebounds and assists in every game against the Thunder, and he built on that with 22 boards and six dimes in Game 1. While the passing wasn’t at its usual level for the three-time league MVP, Jokic made up for it by dominating on the glass.

I expect that to continue, as the Thunder are 10th amongst all playoff teams in rebounding percentage and finished the regular season at 20th in the league in opponent rebounds per game. Jokic has torched OKC on the glass in five meetings this season, grabbing 12 or more boards in every game, including three games with 18 or more rebounds.

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 32.5 Points (-115)

SGA has struggled shooting the ball in the playoffs, hitting just 41.5 percent of his shots from the field and 26.5 percent of his shots from beyond the arc through five games.

However, Gilgeous-Alexander is still scoring at a high rate due to the sheer volume of shots that he’s taking. The All-NBA guard is averaging 28.8 points per game on 23.6 shots per game. He’s also scored 31 or more points in three straight games, including 33 points in Game 1 of this series. 

The usage will always be there for SGA, and I’m betting on some positive regression for him from a shooting perspective. During the regular season, the former first-round pick shot 51.9 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from 3. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

After falling short of 230 points in their first meeting in the regular season, the Thunder and Nuggets finished with 230 or more points in each of their final three games.

Then, in Game 1 of this series, these two squads combined for a whopping 240 points.

I am expecting yet another high-scoring affair in Game 2, as the Thunder did not have an answer for Jokic, allowing him to score 42 points. While OKC still outranks the Nuggets in offensive rating this postseason, these teams are still No. 4 and No. 6 in the league.

Plus, the Thunder have been one of the best OVER teams in the NBA at home, going 26-17-1 this season. Denver has also been solid at hitting the OVER on the road, doing so in 25 of 45 games.

The Nuggets are also 11th out of 16 playoff teams in defensive rating this postseason. So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see OKC push 120 points for the second straight game.

Overall, the pace of a lot of these playoff games determines the total, since a lot of these offenses are the best in the league. OKC is playing at the No. 1 pace in the league in the playoffs, and it’s scoring the ball at an extremely efficient rate. Even if this game isn’t as close as Game 1, I think the OVER is the bet to make. 

Pick: OVER 230 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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