Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 7

The Nuggets are underdogs in Game 7, but can they cover?

The Nuggets are underdogs in Game 7, but they are 5-1 ATS in this series. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

A trip to the Western Conference Finals is on the line on Sunday as the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder face off in Game 7. 

Denver forced a Game 7 with a 12-point win at home in Game 6, avenging two straight losses that it had a chance to win. Denver led in the fourth quarter of both Game 4 and Game 5, yet the Thunder came back to take each matchup.

The Thunder finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA – and the best net rating – but they have run into a buzzsaw in Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. This is the third straight playoff series (dating back to last season) that Denver has gone the distance and the seventh time in Jokic’s career that the Nuggets will play in a Game 7.

Denver is 4-2 in the first six matchups, including a win in the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers.

However, the Nuggets may not have Aaron Gordon, who is in doubt due to a hamstring injury that he suffered in Game 6.

Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon has been diagnosed with a left hamstring strain and his status is in doubt for Game 7 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, sources tell ESPN. Major development heading into Sunday's 3:30 pm ET game on ABC for a Western Conference Finals berth. pic.twitter.com/Zju0lLDwFH

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) May 17, 2025

For OKC, a loss at home in Game 7 would be a massive disappointment after the regular season it had. The Thunder won 68 games and enter this matchup at +135 to win the NBA Finals – the clear favorite in the league. 

OKC was bounced in the second round of the playoffs last season, so losing again in that round would be a pretty tough pill to swallow.

Oddsmakers have the Thunder set as favorites in this matchup, but are they the best bet to make?

Here’s a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my best bet for Sunday’s Game 7. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Nuggets +8 (-108)
• Thunder -8 (-112)

Moneyline

• Nuggets: +260
• Thunder: -325

Total

• 213.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Nuggets vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, May 18
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: Tied 3-3

Nuggets vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

• Russell Westbrook – probable
• Aaron Gordon – questionable
• Jamal Murray – probable
• DaRon Holmes II – out
• Hunter Tyson – questionable

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic -- out

Nuggets vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Aaron Gordon OVER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-120)

Denver forward Aaron Gordon has been an impact player all postseason, and he’s averaging 9.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game in this series.

Gordon has cleared this line in four of his six games, including a seven-rebound, seven-assist showing in Game 6. The veteran forward has a pretty solid floor when it comes to these props, as he’s playing a ton of minutes (37.5 per game) while averaging 13.5 rebound chances and 8.5 potential assists per game in the series.

Gordon could end up pushing the OVER on this number in rebounds alone, so I love this combo prop for Game 7. 

Note: This prop is contingent on Gordon (questionable) playing in Game 7.

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jalen Williams UNDER 20.5 Points (-120)

The Thunder need Jalen Williams to come along for the ride if they want to win Game 7, but I’m far from sold on him having a big enough game to erase his struggles during this series.

Williams is shooting 33.7 percent from the field and 21.2 percent from 3 in this matchup, and he’s only scored 20 or more points in one game (Game 3). 

Plus, Williams has really struggled over his last three games despite getting some solid usage on the offensive end. 

• Game 4: 10 points (2-for-13 FG)
• Game 5: 18 points (5-for-14 FG)
• Game 6: 6 points (3-for-16 FG)

Williams had similar issues in the second round last season, and I’m not willing to bet on him to have one of his best games of the series in a winner-take-all Game 7. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

I’m all over the Nuggets to cover the spread in this matchup. 

While Oklahoma City was the better team in the regular season, this series has not gone well – from a betting standpoint – for the Thunder.

OKC is just 1-5 against the spread, covering only in its 43-point win in Game 2 at home. Denver has either won outright or covered as an underdog in every other game.

The Nuggets also have lost by just five and seven points in their last two losses, leading both of those games when entering the fourth quarter. So, I’m not sold on OKC running away with this game at home.

To put it simply, the Thunder have struggled to find secondary scoring options after SGA that have been consistent. Jalen Williams is shooting just 33.7 percent from the field in the series and Chet Holmgren is averaging just 14.3 points per game.

Meanwhile, Jokic – no matter who wins the MVP – is the best player in the world. The Nuggets big man has played in a ton of Game 7s, and he turned in two of his best performances of the series in Games 5 and 6. 

OKC was dominant against the spread in the regular season, but it’s been a different story in this series. Since Game 7s are usually low scoring, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Nuggets at least keep one close. Eight points is way too many to give either team in this series. 

Pick: Nuggets +8 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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