Ole Miss vs. Iowa State Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Second Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 22, 2025

Mar 21, 2025; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) shoots against Lipscomb Bisons guard Gyasi Powell (10) during the first half of a first round NCAA men’s tournament game at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

No. 6 seed Ole Miss held off a late flurry from No. 11 seed North Carolina to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament, set to face No. 3 seed Iowa State, who dominated Lipscomb en route to a second round appearance. 

The Cyclones didn’t miss a beat without one of its starting guards, Keshon Gilbert, who is out for the NCAA Tournament, as Iowa State looks to extend its March Madness run with another convincing win as a modest favorite against SEC foe Ole Miss. 

Who has the edge in this one? We have you covered below!

Ole Miss vs. Iowa State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Ole Miss: +4.5 (-102)
• Iowa State: -4.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Ole Miss: +164
• Iowa State: -200

Total: 145.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ole Miss vs. Iowa State How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 23rd
• Game Time: 7:45 PM EST
• Venue: Fiserv Forum
• How to Watch (TV): truTV
• Ole Miss Record: 22-11
• Iowa State Record: 25-9

Ole Miss vs. Iowa State Key Players to Watch

Ole Miss

Sean Pedulla: Pedulla stopped the bleeding for Ole Miss, who nearly squandered a 20-plus point lead in the second half of the first round as the transfer guard drained a clutch three-point shot in the final minutes. He finished with 20 points, six rebounds and five assists in the victory.

Iowa State

Tamin Lipsey: After injuring his groin in the end of the regular season, Lipsey looked fully healthy against Lipscomb,scoring 10 points and dishing out four assists in 24 minutes while providing sound on-ball defense that helped result in 17 turnovers. 

Ole Miss vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

This matchup should favor Iowa State, who can expose the shaky interior defense of Ole Miss. 

The Rebels will struggle to keep the Cyclones out of the paint as the team is well equipped to handle the team’s no-middle ball pressure scheme to get the likes of Joshua Jefferson rolling to the rim. The Cyclones are a strong pick-and-roll offense and have plenty of off-ball motion that can burn the Rebels when out of rotation. On the year, Ole Miss is allowing nearly 1.2 points per possession at the rim, bottom half of the country. 

Meanwhile, the Rebels offense got off to a scorching start against North Carolina, but cooled off in the second half, which looked more like the Rebels offense that finished the season. Since February 1st, Ole Miss is only 7-6 with the 118th best effective field goal percentage. 

The Cyclones ability to force halfcourt offense will be key in this one as the team ranks top 100 in the country in average possession length, which will coax the Rebels into late shot clock situations, where I believe the team is short on isolation creators. 

With an edge inside and on the glass, look for Iowa State to keep Ole Miss at arm’s length and cover the spread. 

PICK: Iowa State -4.5 (-120 Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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