Oneil Cruz Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction

Sean Treppedi | Jul 14, 2025

Oneil Cruz is the second-favorite to win the 2025 Home Run Derby with a power slugging profile to put on fireworks Monday. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Oneil Cruz is arguably the most exciting candidate at the 2025 Home Run Derby. He’s one of the game’s biggest sheer power threats, built on a profile of raw strength and breakneck bat speed. 

His May 25 blast, clocked at a mind-bending 122.9 mph exit velocity, stands as the hardest-hit ball in the decade-long Statcast era. That single smash — traveling 431 feet and splashing into the Alleghany River — was eclipsed only by his 472-foot homer in July 2024, marking Cruz as a slugger who doesn’t just hit balls hard... he utterly destroys them (96.1 mph average exit velocity).

He’s generated six of the ten balls this season that cleared 118 mph, underlining his consistency, and not just flashes. These are essential tools that shine in a Derby setting, where contact quality and repetition are more valuable than in-game plate discipline or chase rates.

Yet, Cruz's track record in real games is less spectacular than his peak metrics. His .212 average and 16 homers through 80 games reflect a feast-or-famine profile. Cruz has worked to shorten his swing and utilize the whole field, which has tended to produce line drives rather than lofted pull shots, posing some risk on Monday. 

But the Derby isn't a real baseball game — it’s a showcase for power. Ample rest between swings will aid Cruz’s pure brute power.

Let’s look at what his odds are to progress through the Derby.

Oneil Cruz’s 2025 Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Home Run Derby Champion: +310
• To Make the Finals: +152
• To Make Semifinals: -194

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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