Oregon vs. Penn State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 5

A pair of top-10 teams face off in a massive Big Ten clash on Saturday, as the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions host the No. 6 Oregon Ducks in Week 5.

Oregon hasn’t faced a major test yet this season, but it has wins by 46, 66, 20 and 34 points to start the campaign at 4-0.

James Franklin’s Penn State squad has given up just 17 points all season in three cupcake matchups, but now it has to face a serious test to prove that it is a national title contender in 2025.

Oddsmakers have set the Nittany Lions and Drew Allar as 3.5-point favorites at home, but can they slow down Heisman hopeful Dante Moore and the Ducks?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Saturday’s marquee matchup in the Big Ten.

Oregon vs. Penn State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Oregon +3.5 (-112)
Penn State -3.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Oregon: +140
Penn State: -166

Total

52.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Oregon vs. Penn State How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Sept. 27
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Beaver Stadium
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Oregon record: 4-0
Penn State record: 3-0

Oregon vs. Penn State Key Player to Watch

Dante Moore, Quarterback, Oregon

A legit candidate to win the Heisman in the 2025 season, Moore has thrown for 962 yards, 11 touchdowns and just one pick through four games, leading Oregon to a 4-0 start.

Moore is also averaging 6.2 yards per carry on 14 carries this season, so he can make things happen if the pocket collapses on Saturday.

The Penn State defense has looked great against inferior competition, ranking 17th in the country in EPA/Play. Can Moore lead the Ducks to another 30-plus point game to help them pull off a road upset?

Oregon vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

These teams are No. 4 (Oregon) and No. 8 (Penn State) in EPA/Play this season, but neither squad has faced a team that is close to the level of opponent that they’ll have to face in Week 5.

Both of these teams have star quarterbacks that could single-handedly take over the game, but the Oregon offense (sixth in EPA/Play) has outperformed the Nittany Lions’ attack (80th in EPA/Play) so far this season.

Oregon is one of the best offensive teams in the country, and it’s shown that this season by winning by 20 or more points in every game.

Ultimately, there is one trend for Franklin that I can’t look past. He’s 17-26 straight up against ranked opponents in his career, and he has won just four games in 24 tries against top-10 teams.

I don’t see that changing against an Oregon team that is on par with Penn State this season.

Pick: Oregon Moneyline (+140 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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