Pacers vs. Bucks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 3

The Bucks are favored at home in Game 3. Can they cover?

The Pacers are 12-9 against the spread as road underdogs this season. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The Indiana Pacers have a commanding 2-0 series lead against the Milwaukee Bucks heading into Game 3 on Friday night.

While the Bucks showed some fight in the fourth quarter of Game 2, nearly pulling off a comeback win before losing by eight, Milwaukee has been outclassed overall in this series.

Damian Lillard (blood clot) returned to play almost 37 minutes in Game 2, but it wasn’t enough for a Bucks team that didn’t get much from anyone not named Giannis Antetokounmpo or Bobby Portis on the offensive end.

The Pacers, meanwhile, have the second-best offensive rating of any team in the playoffs right now and are looking to make a deep playoff run after appearing in the Eastern Conference Finals last season.

Oddsmakers have set the Bucks as favorites at home in Game 3, but can they cover? Milwaukee was 17-14-1 against the spread as a home favorite during the regular season.

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Game 3 clash.

Pacers vs. Bucks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Pacers +5 (-108)
• Bucks -5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Pacers: +170
• Bucks: -205

Total

• 229.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Pacers vs. Bucks How to Watch

• Date: Friday, April 25
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Fiserv Forum
• How to Watch (TV): ESPNU/NBA TV
• Series: Pacers lead 2-0

Pacers vs. Bucks Injury Reports

Pacers Injury Report

• Isaiah Jackson – out

Bucks Injury Report

• Tyler Smith – questionable

Pacers vs. Bucks Best NBA Prop Bets

Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

• Pascal Siakam OVER 19.5 Points (-120)

Pacers forward Pascal Siakam has thrived against the Bucks this season, and I expect that to keep going in Game 3.

In six meetings (including playoffs) against Milwaukee, Siakam has scored 25, 20, 25, 26, 25 and 24 points, clearing this line for Game 3 every time. He’s taken at least 14 shots in each of those games as well.

The Pacers currently have an offensive rating over 121 in the playoffs, and Siakam has been a big reason why, shooting 58.1 percent from the field and 50.0 percent from beyond the arc. 

It’s becoming clear that Milwaukee doesn’t match up well with the three-time All-Star, and I think this line is set way too low for him in Game 3. 

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Damian Lillard OVER 6.5 Assists (-110)

Lillard averaged 7.1 assists per game in the 2024-25 regular season, and he returned to pick up seven assists in Game 2. 

While Dame’s performance is a little bit of a wild card to predict since he missed a month before returning – in the playoffs (!!) – I like this line for him in Game 3.

The Bucks need easier ways to get Giannis the ball – Dame can run plenty of two-man action with him – and Lillard doesn’t seem to be playing a reduced role, as he suited up for 36:58 in Game 2. 

Pacers vs. Bucks Prediction and Pick

The Pacers are off to a commanding 2-0 series lead, even though the Bucks got Lillard back in action in Game 2.

Lillard’s performance is going to be hard to judge, as he missed a month with a blood clot and likely isn’t at peak form right now. Still, he does boost the Bucks’ offense as a whole.

Despite that, I’m backing Indiana to cover the spread in Game 3. I think this series could be a quick one, as the Pacers have looked like the much better – and deeper – team so far. Indiana has the second-best offensive rating of any team in the playoffs this season while the Bucks are just 11th in that category.

Plus, Indiana was really solid as a road underdog in the regular season, going 12-9 against the spread.

Even with Dame and Giannis both healthy, the Bucks supporting cast simply isn’t enough for me to trust as a five-point favorite. Milwaukee got a massive game from Bobby Portis in Game 2 and still didn’t win, and it’s hard to trust anyone but Portis on the Bucks bench to put together a solid scoring performance. 

If the Bucks do win this game, I expect it to be close.

Pick: Pacers +5 (-108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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