Pacers vs. Thunder Best Prop Bets for Game 7 of NBA Finals (Target Chet Holmgren, TJ McConnell)

Breaking down the best prop bets for Game 7 of the NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder.

Indiana Pacers guard T.J. McConnell is a great prop target in Game 7. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals is the final time that bettors can wager on some NBA player props until the start of the 2025-26 season, and this series has been one of the ages for basketball fans.

The Indiana Pacers have been relentless all postseason long, forcing a Game 7 with a huge win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night – their 10th outright win this postseason as an underdog.

Even with Tyrese Haliburton banged up due to a calf injury, the Pacers have taken a 68-win Thunder team the distance, and OKC is far from a guarantee to win the title even though it was -1600 to do so before Game 6. 

When it comes to the prop market for Game 7, there are a couple of Pacers role players that I’m targeting after they’ve stepped up time and time again in this series. Plus, one of the Thunder’s Big 3 has struggled on offense, and could be a fade candidate in a Game 7 where points are usually at a premium.

Here’s a full breakdown of the props for the final game of the 2024-25 NBA season. 

Best Prop Bets for Pacers vs. Thunder Game 7

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Aaron Nesmith OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-175)
• Chet Holmgren UNDER 15.5 Points (-110)
• TJ McConnell OVER 17.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)

Aaron Nesmith OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-175)

Aaron Nesmith’s impressive 3-point shooting continued in Game 6 of the NBA Finals, as he knocked down 2-of-6 shots from beyond the arc – the fifth time in six games that he’s made multiple 3-pointers.

For the playoffs, Nesmith is shooting 49.6 percent from 3 on 5.4 attempts per game, and he’s knocked down 16-of-33 3-pointers in the NBA Finals (5.5 attempts per game).

Nesmith should have a big role in Game 7, especially since Haliburton is at less than 100 percent. 

Chet Holmgren UNDER 15.5 Points (-110)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Chet Holmgren was a fade candidate in Game 7: 

The 2025 NBA Finals have been a rough go for Chet Holmgren on offense.

He’s scored over 15 points in just one game, and he’s shooting just 35.3 percent from the field. Here’s a quick look at some of Holmgren’s numbers against Indiana, which has done a great job of keeping him from getting easy looks on drives to the rim: 

• 11.3 PPG
• 35.3 FG%
• 11.3 3P% (2-for-17 overall)
• Catch-and-Shoot FG%: 11.1%
• FG% Inside 10 FT: 47.5%

Holmgren is also shooting just 25.0 percent from the field on drives where he takes two dribbles, and 23.1 percent on drives where he takes 3-6 dribbles. 

Simply put, the Thunder forward has not been able to get going on offense, and he has three games in this series where he’s taken less than 10 shots. I can’t trust him in what may be a lower-scoring matchup to have one of his best scoring games of the Finals. 

TJ McConnell OVER 17.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-105)

Another player that should step up once again for the Pacers is TJ McConnell, who went off in both Game 5 and Game 6.

McConnell combined for 26 points, rebounds and assists in Game 5 before putting up 27 in Game 6, filling the void left by Haliburton’s injury. The star guard is going to play in Game 7, but McConnell should still be heavily involved off the bench as one of the most important role players for Indiana.

McConnell has over 17.5 points, rebounds and assists in four of his six games in this series, and his role has expanded over the last few games. Since he’s averaging 3.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, it gives him a really solid floor when it comes to clearing this prop in Game 7. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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