Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Odds, Prediction and Betting Preview (OKC Favored)

Breaking down the series odds for the NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder are favored to win the NBA Finals. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Who will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy later this month?

The NBA Finals are set between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers after Indy closed out the New York Knicks on Saturday night in the Eastern Conference Finals.

OKC has been the favorite to win the Finals for quite some time, but the Pacers pulled off a bunch of upsets, knocking off the No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers and the Knicks to reach the NBA Finals.

Led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, the Pacers are a deep team that has thrived on offense all season long – ranking No. 1 in the playoffs in effective field goal percentage.

Meanwhile, the Thunder are right where everyone expected them to be. OKC has been an odds-on favorite to win the title ever since the Boston Celtics were knocked out of the playoffs, and MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a massive favorite to win Finals MVP.

The Thunder made quick work of the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, winning in five games and building on an impressive regular season that saw them win 68 games.

OKC had the best net rating and defensive rating in the NBA during the regular season, and it has dominated by forcing turnovers and scoring in transition in the playoffs. 

Oddsmakers have set the Thunder as -700 favorites to win the title this season, but the Pacers have shown time and time again that they need to be taken seriously, especially on the road. Indiana is an impressive 6-2 on the road in the playoffs, beating the Cavs three times on the road and the Knicks twice.

Here’s a look at the odds to win the NBA Finals, as well as my breakdown of the series, and, of course, a pick to win. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pacers vs. Thunder Series Odds

• Indiana Pacers: +500
• Oklahoma City Thunder: -700

Pacers vs. Thunder Series Correct Score Odds

• Thunder in 5: +250
• Thunder in 4: +260
• Thunder in 6: +450
• Thunder in 7: +500
• Pacers in 6: +1400
• Pacers in 7: +1500
• Pacers in 5: +3000
• Pacers in 4: +4500

Pacers vs. Thunder Betting Preview

While oddsmakers have set the Thunder as massive favorites in this series, the Pacers have been undervalued all postseason long for a team that has made back-to-back conference final appearances.

Indiana’s offense is elite, ranking first in effective field goal percentage, second in offensive rating, and second in points per game during the playoffs. Not only that, but the Pacers are first in assists per game and just fifth in turnovers per game amongst playoff teams.

That’s a huge testament to Haliburton, who has become elite at playing at a fast pace while taking care of the ball. Indiana was a nightmare for both the Knicks and Cavs to guard, but things will be different against OKC.

The Thunder have multiple All-Defensive team players, and they can throw a ton of guys at Haliburton, including Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, SGA, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, and Jalen Williams. 

Down low, the Thunder have two great rim-protecting bigs in Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. The Thunder have the league MVP in Gilgeous-Alexander, but this is a team that defends at an extremely high level over anything else.

OKC posted a historic defensive rating this season, and it ranks No. 1 in defensive rating and No. 1 in opponent turnovers per game in the playoffs. 

While the Thunder have some questions about their scoring after SGA, they have more than made up for it by defending at a high level. Outside of the second round against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets, OKC has only lost one game. 

From a betting perspective, there a bunch of trends to know: 

• The Pacers are 6-2 straight up on the road this postseason.
• The Thunder 8-1 straight up at home this postseason.
• Oklahoma City is 34-14-2 against the spread as a home favorite this season – the best mark in the NBA.
• Indiana is 18-11 against the spread as a road underdog this season – the fourth-best mark in the NBA.
• The OVER is 53-44-2 in OKC’s games in the 2024-25 season.
• The OVER is 52-44-2 in Indiana’s games in the 2024-25 season. 

The Thunder have also closed as favorites in every game this postseason, so bettors should expect Indiana to close as a home underdog in Games 3 and 4 – and if it’s able to force a Game 6. 

Now, here’s my pick…

Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

I want to give the Pacers their respect, because they have earned it with this playoff run – especially with their play on the road.

However, I am worried that Indiana’s uptempo style – something that usually throws off teams – will play right into OKC’s hands.

The Thunder want to get out and run, especially since they have the best defense in the NBA. While the Pacers were a top-10 defensive team after the All-Star break, they don’t have the elite wing defenders that OKC possesses up and down the roster.

Not only that, but the Thunder love to play in transition, as they force a ton of turnovers (18.0 per game in the playoffs) and get a ton of buckets in transition. Now, Indiana can counteract that by taking care of the ball, but that’s easier said than done against the best defense in the league.

OKC also comes into this series much healthier than the Pacers. Aaron Nesmith has been dealing with an ankle injury since Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and Jarace Walker is expected to miss at least the first two games.

Plus, backup center Tony Bradley did not play in the series-clinching win over the Knicks due to a hip injury. 

The Thunder have a net rating of +11.2 in the playoffs (Indiana is sitting at +4.1), and they’ve been dominant against non-Jokic opponents. Plus, the Pacers fall outside of a key trend that I have followed for years.

Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the title finished the regular season in the top eight in the league in net rating. This season, OKC was No. 1 while the Pacers finished 13th. 

That trend could get broken, but OKC is a massive favorite for a reason. I will give the Pacers their respect in this series – especially since they’ve been such a good road team – but OKC wins in six. 

Pick: Thunder to win NBA Finals (-700), OKC in 6 (+450 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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