Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best NBA Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 2

Are the Pacers undervalued as 11-point underdogs in Game 2?

The Pacers are 11-point underdogs in Game 2. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Game 1 of the NBA Finals has flipped the series in the eyes of some, as the Indiana Pacers stole Game 1 and have a chance to really take control of their series on the road in Game 2.

Still, oddsmakers have the Oklahoma City Thunder heavily favored to win Game 2 – they’re 11-point favorites – and the series (-300 to win the title). Still, the Thunder were -700 to win the title ahead of Game 1, so losing the series opener has certainly shifted things in favor of the Pacers.

This postseason, the Pacers are 7-2 on the road, and they’ve won six of their last seven road games. Their only loss on the road since the start of the second round came in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks. 

There were a ton of interesting things to take away from Game 1, but here are a few things to watch – in my eyes – heading into Sunday’s contest: 

• Indiana’s turnovers: The Pacers turned the ball over 25 times in Game 1 and still found a way to win on Tyrese Haliburton’s last-second jumper.
• OKC’s secondary stars: Jalen Williams (6-for-19) and Chet Holmgren (2-for-9) did not do enough offensively to help Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Game 1.
• Lineup changes: The Thunder benched Isaiah Hartenstein and started Cason Wallace in Game 1. Holmgren also played just 23 minutes. Will Mark Daigneault change things up again in Game 2? 

After OKC was favored to win this series in five games, it’s looking like these NBA Finals could last much longer than that.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 2 on Sunday night. 

Pacers vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Pacers +11 (-112)
• Thunder -11 (-108)

Moneyline

• Pacers: +390
• Thunder: -520

Total

• 228.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Pacers vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, June 8
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: Pacers lead 1-0

Pacers vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Pacers Injury Report

• Isaiah Jackson – out

• Jarace Walker -- out

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic – out

Pacers vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

• Pascal Siakam 7+ Rebounds (-160)

Pascal Siakam is averaging just 6.0 rebounds per game in the playoffs, but he grabbed 10 boards in Game 1 of this series with the Thunder opting to go smaller in their starting lineup.

OKC shied away from playing two bigs at the same time, leading to a massive advantage on the glass for the Pacers in the series opener.

What’s most interesting to me with this prop is that Siakam is averaging 10.9 rebound chances per game in the playoffs, but that number skyrocketed to 15.0 in Game 1. He responded by reaching double-digit boards for just the second time this postseason.

While I’m not expecting that again, I do think seven or more boards is in play for Siakam, who averaged 6.9 rebounds per game in the regular season.

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-160)

This postseason, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting just 31.4 percent from beyond the arc, but he’s knocked down at least two shots from deep in nine of his playoff games, including each of his last four.

In game 1, SGA attempted six shots from deep, hitting three of them.

While the Thunder don’t rely heavily on the league MVP shooting the ball from beyond the arc, he’s still attempting 5.1 shots per game from deep in the playoffs.

Given that volume, I think Gilgeous-Alexander is worth a look in Game 2 with a ton on the line for OKC. I expect SGA to come out aggressive as a scorer, and he did step into a few 3-pointers in transition in Game 1. If the attempts for the star guard are hovering around the five-to-seven range, he’s a great bet to hit two of them on Sunday. 

Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Pacers are the bet to make in Game 2: 

The Thunder have been elite as home favorites in the 2024-25 season, but I’m having a hard time buying them at this price against a Pacers team that has thrived on the road all season long.

Indiana is 7-2 straight up on the road in the playoffs and 19-11 against the spread as a road underdog in the 2024-25 season. The Pacers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games, easily doing so in Game 1 of this series.

While I do think that the Thunder will shoot better in Game 2, the Pacers also aren’t going to turn the ball over 25 times. This is an Indiana team that is one of the best in the league at limiting turnovers, and it showed in the second half of Game 1 (six turnovers) that it can take care of the ball against this elite OKC defense.

Plus, the Pacers dominated the glass in Game 1 with Isaiah Hartenstein moving to the bench for OKC. Does Mark Daigneault go back to his original starting lineup? 

There’s a lot more questions for OKC after playing a pretty decent game and still losing at home. The Pacers have to feel like they can play better, and they’ve shown all postseason long that they’re undervalued in the betting market.

I think Indiana can keep this game within double digits, even if OKC ends up winning easily in Game 2. 

Pick: Pacers +11 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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