Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, June 13

Sean Treppedi | Jun 13, 2025

Jackson Merrill has a favorable matchup against the Diamondbacks on Friday, so we're looking at his total bases prop. / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

San Diego leads Arizona by 4 ½ games in the NL West as they kick off a weekend series with one another. 

The Padres will hand the ball to Stephen Kolek (3-1, 3.00 ERA), whose road dominance has been a quiet catalyst for their success. 

Opposing him is Ryne Nelson (2–2, 4.60 ERA), who’s been a tale of two seasons: brilliant at home (2.67 ERA) but shaky on the road, with a rough outing on June 7 where he allowed seven runs in three innings. 

We’ll explore what kind of bounce-back potential he has for Friday’s series opener as these divisional foes square up for the first time. 

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Padres +1.5 (-184)
• Diamondbacks -1.5 (+152)

Moneyline

• Padres (+116)
• Diamondbacks (-134)

Total

• Over 9.5 (+100)
• Under 9.5 (-122)

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

• Padres: Stephen Kolek (3-1, 3.00 ERA)
• Diamondbacks: Ryne Nelson (2-2, 4.60 ERA)

Padres vs. Diamondbacks How to Watch

• Date: Friday, June 13, 2025
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Chase Field
• How to Watch (TV): Apple TV+
• Padres Record: 38-29
• Diamondbacks Record: 34-34

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bet

• Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125 at FanDuel)

Merrill is hitting .303 with a .822 OPS and contributing 10 doubles, two triples, and five homers on the year. He hits right-handed pitching especially well, batting .542/.593/.833 with 2 doubles and 2 homers in 24 at-bats versus righties this season.

He’s faced Nelson just seven times, collecting three hits in seven at-bats, including a double. Merrill is currently riding a .267 average over his last four games (4 hits in 15 AB) and has two multi-hit games in his last five.

With Chase Field’s extremely favorable hitting environment that ranks No. 3 overall in hits this year and Merrill’s uptick in slug percentage since his Rookie of the Year campaign last season (.333 to .479), I’m OK with the juice on his total bases prop Friday night.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

The Padres head into tonight’s series opener against Arizona carrying momentum from a strong performance in San Diego, where their rotation delivered back-to-back shutouts on the road. 

Kolek has been a standout in San Diego’s rotation, producing a 3.00 ERA and consistently inducing soft contact and ground balls at an elite rate. He’s especially been lights out in road outings with a 0.85 ERA. 

Arizona’s offense, though potent — ranking fourth in the majors in runs scored — has been hampered by shaky pitching after losing ace Corbin Burnes to season-ending Tommy John surgery. Their bullpen is also a mess, sporting a fourth-worst overall 5.21 ERA as it remains temperamental at home. Meanwhile, San Diego boasts the third-best bullpen ERA at 3.14. With Kolek set to limit damage in the early innings and a superior bullpen to close things out, there’s an edge on taking the road dogs on Friday.

Pick: Padres (+116 at FanDuel)

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