Padres vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 21

Sean Treppedi | Jul 21, 2025

Eury Perez is emerging as a breakout starter in Miami's rotation, which points us to his strikeouts prop against San Diego on Monday. / James A. Pittman-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres head into Miami on Monday playing solid baseball, having won four of their last six and taking their most recent series in Washington behind big offensive performances from Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. 

They'll hand the ball to Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.80 ERA), who has struggled with control all season and was inefficient in his last outing against Oakland. 

The Miami Marlins, meanwhile, have won four of their last five and are showing signs of life post-break, including a walk-off win and a strong series against the Royals. 

They'll counter with Eury Perez (3-2, 2.91 ERA), who is coming off a dominant seven-inning shutout of the Orioles and continues to flash ace-level stuff when he's locked in.

Let’s look at how both of these trending teams stack up in the series opener. 

Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Padres +1.5 (-188)
• Marlins -1.5 (-155)

Moneyline

• Padres (+110)
• Marlins (-130)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-104)
• Under 8.5 (-118)

Padres vs. Marlins  Probable Pitchers

• Padres: Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.80 ERA)
• Marlins: Eury Perez (3-2, 3.18 ERA)

Padres vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 21, 2025
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: loanDepot Park
• How to Watch (TV): Padres TV Network, FDSN Florida
• Padres Record: 54-45
• Marlins Record: 46-52

Padres vs. Marlins Prop Bet

• Eury Perez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-144 at FanDuel)

Perez punched out six over seven shutout innings against the O’s in his last start. He’s now struck out 35 batters in 34 innings this season, and with the Padres striking out at the seventh-highest rate in baseball against right-handed pitching over the past month, this matchup lines up well for him. San Diego’s offense may be surging overall, but it remains vulnerable to swing-and-miss stuff, especially against high-octane arms like Perez. 

The Marlins have leaned on him during this recent hot stretch, and with the bullpen ranking in the bottom third of MLB in ERA, Miami will likely let Perez work deep into the game again if he's dealing. He’s hit this number in three of his last five starts, and the way he’s sequencing his pitches right now gives him a good shot to get there again against the Padres.

Padres vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

I like Perez enough to have an edge as home favorites. The young righty has been quietly effective, allowing just 20 hits in those 34 innings with a 2.53 ERA at home, and Miami has won five of his seven starts. Vasquez has managed a decent ERA in recent outings, but his peripherals tell a more concerning story: a 4.75 K/9 and a 4.57 ERA on the road. 

The Padres may have the statistical edge in wRC+ and a deeper bullpen, but Vasquez’s command issues make them vulnerable, especially away from home.

The Marlins, meanwhile, are riding their best stretch of the season, showing life on both sides of the ball and creeping toward .500 when many wrote them off months ago. Miami's bullpen isn’t elite, but it’s held together well enough during this run to have some stability, and if they get five or six from Perez, it should be smooth sailing. 

Pick: Marlins (-130 at FanDuel)

---

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.