Padres vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 22

Sean Treppedi | Jul 22, 2025

Edward Cabrera's strikeout prop line presents exciting value given his recent play. / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

Jackson Merrill and Martin Maldonado provided all the offense San Diego needed in the second inning Monday night, lifting the Padres to a 2-1 win over the Marlins.

San Diego will now turn to Stephen Kolek (3-4, 4.24 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) on Tuesday. He has been a tale of two pitchers this season, but his sparkling 2.06 ERA on the road suggests he’s primed for another strong outing away from Petco Park.

Edward Cabrera (3-4, 3.61 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) has found consistency for the Marlins, posting a 2.95 ERA over his last seven starts while continuing to thrive at home with a 3.16 mark at loanDepot park.

Here’s how I’m betting on the matchup.

Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Padres +1.5 (-205)
• Marlins -1.5 (+168)

Moneyline

• Padres (+106)
• Marlins (-124)

Total

• Over 8 (-112)
• Under 8 (-108)

Padres vs. Marlins Probable Pitchers

• Padres: Stephen Kolek (4-4, 4.24 ERA)
• Marlins: Edward Cabrera (3-4, 3.61 ERA)

Padres vs. Marlins How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 22, 2025
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: loanDepot Park
• How to Watch (TV): Padres TV Network, FDSN Florida
• Padres Record: 55-45
• Marlins Record: 46-53

Padres vs. Marlins Prop Bet

• Edward Cabrera Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-108 at FanDuel)

Cabrera’s price for hitting five strikeouts on Tuesday is intriguing. He has exceeded this line in 10 consecutive starts, accumulating 60 strikeouts over 53 innings during this stretch. Cabrera has also recorded six strikeouts in three of his last four appearances and has thrown off-speed pitches 71% of the time this month, the highest among NL starters — a potentially advantageous spot against a Padres lineup that has shown vulnerability to off-speed pitches all season. 

Padres vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

While the Padres’ offense ranks pretty mediocre in batting average (.247) and on-base percentage (.317), their pitching staff continues to make up for it when it can. San Diego boasts a 3.61 ERA, fourth-best in MLB and ranks fifth in batting average against (.229). 

Miami’s surge is thanks to their hitting depth; it's ranked 9th in batting average (.253), but they lack the pitching depth to support sustained runs. I like Cabrera as a strikeout artist, he’s got some troubling high contact numbers that have led to concerning exit velocities.

Kolek’s report card doesn’t reflect any bit more trustworthy on that front, but he elicits ground balls and doesn’t give up many barrels. I like the Padres to follow up as road dogs with another gritty win against an overvalued Marlins club.

Pick: Padres (+106 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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