Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Aaron Nola, Logan Webb Are Top Targets on Tuesday)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the MLB action on Tuesday, June 18, including a play for Logan Webb.
San Francisco Giants pitcher Logan Webb.
San Francisco Giants pitcher Logan Webb. / Bob Kupbens-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA season is over, which means Major League Baseball and the WNBA are the main focus of the sports world going forward, and that means we have even more time to analyze some MLB props over the next few months. 

Starting with Tuesday night’s loaded slate – that features several top-tier pitchers on the mound – I’m betting three different players to go OVER a prop tonight. 

Two of those players are starting pitchers – San Francisco’s Logan Webb and Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola – and there is one MVP candidate that I have to bet on in a divisional matchup as well. 

Here’s a breakdown of each prop on Tuesday night: 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday, June 18

  • Logan Webb OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-185)
  • Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
  • Aaron Nola OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Logan Webb OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-185)

Logan Webb is a Cy Young candidate in the NL so far this season, and he’s undervalued in my eyes on Tuesday night against the Chicago Cubs.

Webb comes into this start with seven straight outings where he’s pitched six or more innings, clearing 17.5 in 12 of 15 total appearances in 2024. 

The Cubs come into Tuesday’s game ranking 25th in the league in hits, 21st in OPS and 18th in runs scored, making this a pretty favorable matchup for the Giants ace. 

San Francisco seems to have no problem extending Webb’s leash, allowing him to clear 100 pitches on six occasions in 2024. As long as he doesn't have a blowup outing, Webb is one of the safer bets in baseball to clear 17.5 outs recorded. 

Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-125)

Aaron Judge’s hot streak is alive and well, as he’s picked up a hit in eight of his last nine games, bumping his average to .299 on the season with a league-leading 22 doubles and 26 home runs. 

Judge and the New York Yankees are taking on Baltimore Orioles starter Albert Suarez on Tuesday, who has a 1.61 ERA on the season. Still, Suarez opened the season as a reliever, and I think he’s vulnerable to some hits in this matchup against one of the best offenses in baseball. 

Plus, Judge has mashed right-handed pitching, hitting .308 with 40 extra base hits on the season. Since he doesn’t need multiple hits to clear this prop and is an XBH machine, I’ll take a shot on Judge during this extended hot streak. 

Aaron Nola OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Aaron Nola has a tough matchup when it comes to strikeouts on Tuesday, as the San Diego Padres average the second-fewest K’s per game this season. 

However, I still like the OVER for Nola in this prop, who is all the way down at 4.5 punchouts. 

Nola has picked up at least five K’s in nine of his last 11 outings, and the Padres are averaging 7.33 strikeouts per game over their last three. Since this number is lower than usual for Nola, I’ll take a shot on him against a tough Padres lineup.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Peter Dewey


Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.