Panthers vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 4

Iain MacMillan | Sep 23, 2025

The Patriots are home favorites against the Panthers in NFL Week 4 action. / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The New England Patriots had plenty of offseason hype but have been disappointing to start their 2025 campaign. They're now 1-2, but the good news is they get to welcome the lowly Carolina Panthers to town in Week 4.

The Panthers are also 1-2, but don't let last week's 30-0 win against the Falcons fool you; Carolina is still one of the worst teams the NFL has to offer.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this interconference showdown in Week 4.

Panthers vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spread

• Panthers +5.5 (-110)
• Patriots -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Panthers +205
• Patriots -250

Total

• OVER 43.5 (-110)
• UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Panthers vs. Patriots How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept 28
• Game Time: 1:00 pm ET
• Venue: Gillette Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Panthers Record: 1-2
• Patriots Record: 1-2

Panthers vs. Patriots Betting Trends

• Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games
• The OVER is 13-5 in the Panthers' last 18 games
• Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Patriots
• Panthers are 2-17 straight up in their last 19 road games
• The OVER is 7-3 in the Patriots' last 10 games
• Patriots are 2-13 straight up in their last 15 home games
• Patriots are 0-5 ATS the last five times they were set as favorites

Panthers vs. Patriots Injury Reports

Panthers Injury Report

• Tershawn Wharton, DT - Questionable
• Xavier Legette, WR - Questionable
• Patrick Jones II, LB - Questionable
• Ja'Tavion Sanders, TE - Doubtful
• Austin Corbett, C - IR

Patriots Injury Report

• Christian Gonzalez, CB - Questionable
• Layden Robinson, G - IR
• Jahlani Tavai, LB - IR-R
• Isaiah Iton, DT - IR
• Deneric Pricne, RB - IR

Panthers vs. Patriots Key Player to Watch

• Drake Maye, Quarterback - New England Patriots

Drake Maye has thrown a couple of bad turnovers to start the season, but let's remember that he has completed 72.6% of passes for 785 yards and five touchdowns. If the Patriots get back to being a playoff contender in the AFC, a big reason for it is going to be Maye. Let's see what he can do on Sunday.

Panthers vs. Patriots Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down why I'm laying the points with the Patriots:

The Patriots are in a great buy-low spot right now. This team is 1-2, but both their losses have been single-score games. What's more important is their underlying metrics. They rank 15th in EPA per play and 21st in Net Yards per Play (-0.4). While those numbers certainly don't look great, I don't think the Panthers are a competitive team after one strong win against the Falcons. They were still outgained in that performance and now enter Week 4 ranking 30th in Net Yards per Play (-1.4) and 22nd in EPA per Play.

Few people are as high on the Patriots as they were in the offseason, but after a slow start, now is the time to buy low on them. They're a step above the Panthers and will prove that on Sunday.

Pick: Patriots -5.5 (-110) via Caesars

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