Patriots vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 16

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New England Patriots-Buffalo Bills matchup in NFL Week 16.

Peter Dewey | Dec 17, 2024

The Bills are 4-2 against the spread as home favorites this season. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills are still in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and they have an extremely favorable finish to the season with two games against the New England Patriots – including one in Week 16 – and one against the New York Jets.

The Patriots (3-11) enter this game on a four-game losing streak, including a 13-point loss to Arizona in Week 15.

Meanwhile, Buffalo pulled off the upset of the week, ending the Detroit Lions’ long winning streak and handing them their second loss of the season. Allen, who has combined for 10 touchdowns in the last two weeks, should have a field day against a New England defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards per play and points allowed.

Oddsmakers have set the Bills as 14-point favorites in this game – the biggest spread of the week – after they put up 40-plus points in back-to-back weeks.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch, betting trends and my prediction for this AFC East clash in Week 16.

Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Patriots +14 (-108)
Bills -14 (-112)

Moneyline

Patriots: +600
Bills: -900

Total

46.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Patriots vs. Bills How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Dec. 22
Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
Venue: Highmark Stadium
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Patriots record: 3-11
Bills record: 11-3

Patriots vs. Bills Betting Trends

The Bills are 9-5 against the spread this season.
The Patriots are 5-8-1 against the spread this season.
The Patriots are 2-7 straight up in Drake Maye’s starts this season.
The Bills are 4-2 ATS as home favorites in the 2024 season.
The Patriots are 3-4 ATS as road dogs in the 2024 season.
The OVER is 9-5 in the 14 games for both teams in 2024.

Patriots vs. Bills Injury Reports

Patriots Injury Report

Javon Baker – questionable
Cole Strange – questionable
Christian Elliss – questionable

Bills Injury Report

Curtis Samule – questionable
Casey Toohill – questionable
Cole Bishop – questionable
Taylor Rapp – questionable
Damar Hamlin – questionable
Rasul Douglas – questionable
Matt Milano – questionable
Spencer Brown – questionable

Patriots vs. Bills Key Players to Watch

New England Patriots

Drake Maye: It’s been an up and down rookie season for Drake Maye, who has led the Patriots to a 2-7 record in his nine starts. Maye has 12 touchdown passes to nine picks this season, but he’s also taken 27 sacks behind a terrible offensive line. Can he keep the Patriots close against one of the best offenses in the NFL?

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen: Allen threw for 362 yards and two scores against Detroit, running for two more in the process. He’s accounted for 10 scores in the Bills’ last two games alone, giving him some impressive season-long numbers – a reason why he’s a -900 favorite to capture his first MVP.

Patriots vs. Bills Prediction and Pick

Buffalo’s offense has been humming the last few weeks, scoring 48, 42 and 35 points in its last three games and at least 30 points in seven straight (!!).

That sets up well for an OVER in this matchup, but I also like Buffalo to cover the spread against a New England team that ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in yards per play allowed and points allowed.

The Patriots' offense has not been good enough to keep up with that – hence the 5-8-1 ATS record – scoring the third-fewest points in the NFL this season.

While Maye raises the ceiling of this offense, he’s been far from lights out this season, throwing for multiple scores in just three of his 10 outings (nine starts).

Allen is on a tear right now, and the Bills are posting an average margin of victory of 17.3 points per game as home favorites this season (six games). I expect them to roll in Week 16.

Pick: Bills -14 (-112)