Paula Badosa vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction and Odds for Australian Open Semifinals

Reed Wallach | Jan 22, 2025

Jan 21, 2025; Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; Aryna Sabalenka hits a forehand during her match against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarterfinals of the women's singles at the 2025 Australian Open at Melbourne Park. Mandatory Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images / Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Aryna Sabalenka’s quest for a third straight Australian Open title continues in the semifinal against upstart Paula Badosa on Thursday. 

The No. 1 player in the world is off her toughest competition in more than two years in Melbourne, dropping her first set since the 2023 final against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, but managed to hold on to win in three sets. 

Now, she faces the Spanish born Badosa, who is off one of the best wins of her career, stunning Coco Gauff in the quarterfinals in straight sets. Can she back it up with another stunner? 

Here’s how to bet the first Australian Open semifinals matchup. 

Paula Badosa vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Badosa: +4.5 (-126)
• Sabalenka: -4.5 (-108)

Moneyline

• Badosa: +250
• Sabalenka: -315

Total: 21.5 (Over -108/Under -124)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Paula Badosa vs. Aryna Sabalenka How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, January 23
• Game Time: 3:30 AM EST
• Venue: Rod Laver Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Paula Badosa vs. Aryna Sabalenka Prediction and Pick

While Badosa won the first two meetings between the two, she has dropped the last five, including three in 2024 alone. 

However, Badosa has been competitive in matches against the World No. 1. Badosa has taken a set off of Sabalenka in two of the last four defeats and has been more than capable of handling the overpowering first serve of Sabalenka. 

While she hasn’t been able to close out matches or maintain her level through three sets, Badosa’s ability to keep the ball in play and provide depth on her return has been able to cause some issues for Sabalenka.

After dropping a set, conventional wisdom would expect Sabalenka to have a bounce back effort, but I think it’ll take a little bit longer than expected. I’ll back the over in the semifinal meeting. 

 PICK: OVER 21.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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