Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary's Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for WCC Tournament Semifinal

Reed Wallach | Mar 10, 2025

March 12, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Saint Mary's Gaels guard Alex Ducas (44) celebrates against the Gonzaga Bulldogs during the second half in the finals of the WCC Basketball Championship at Orleans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Pepperdine has been on a stunning run in the WCC Tournament, winning its first three games in Las Vegas, including upsets of Oregon State and Santa Clara after a 4-14 regular season record in conference play. 

The Waves will now take on the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament, Saint Mary’s, who rolled through league play to a 17-1 record. The Gaels are a pronounced favorite after beating Pepperdine by an average margin of 27 points in the regular season. Can we expect another blowout? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary’s Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Pepperdine: +19.5 (-110)
• Saint Mary’s: -19.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Pepperdine: +1400
• Saint Mary’s: -4000

Total: 133.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary’s How to Watch

• Date: Monday, March 10th
• Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
• Venue: Orleans Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Pepperdine Record: 13-21
• Saint Mary’s Record: 27-4

Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary’s Key Players to Watch

Pepperdine

Moe Odum: The junior point guard has been playing awesome in Las Vegas, averaging over 22 points and 11 assists in the team’s three victories. One of the best facilitators in the country, second in assist rate, Odum has been cooking from a distance in Las Vegas to inject some scoring into the Pepperdine offense, making 50% of his threes. 

Saint Mary’s 

Mitchell Saxen: The Waves' interior has been suspect all season long, and that should make for a big effort from the Gaels' veteran big man, Saxen. One of the premier two-way threats at the center position, Saxen is averaging 10 points and eight rebounds on 53% shooting. 

Pepperdine vs. Saint Mary’s Prediction and Pick

The Gaels' defense will likely shut down the Waves’ budding offense as the team is as disciplined as there is in the country. 

Saint Mary’s is top 20 in the country in effective field goal percentage as it funnels teams inside the arc and into the length of players like Saxen that stymie the rim for opponents. The Gaels are 13th in two-point percentage allowed while bolstering a top 15 defensive rebounding percentage. 

Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s plays at a prodding pace, bottom five in the country in adjusted tempo, per KenPom. 

While the offense is effective, it’s very comfortable than playing a game that features about 60 possessions. 

With limited opportunities to score, I’ll side with the under, as Saint Mary’s defense can contain Odum en route to a win. 

PICK: UNDER 133.5 (-105, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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