Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Prop Bets for Jayson Tatum, Celtics-Mavericks Game 4)

How to bet on Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks.
Boston Celtics guard Jrue Holiday (4) and forward Jayson Tatum.
Boston Celtics guard Jrue Holiday (4) and forward Jayson Tatum. / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Will the 2024 NBA Finals come to an end tonight? 

The Boston Celtics survived a fourth-quarter run by the Dallas Mavericks — benefiting from Luka Doncic fouling out — to win Game 3, proving once again that they are the best and most complete team in the NBA. 

Boston is now a PERFECT 7-0 on the road in the playoffs, and it has a chance to post the best postseason record since the 2017 Golden State Warriors, who went 16-1. 

Despite this, oddsmakers have set Game 4 as a pick’em with Kristaps Porzingis (missed Game 3) likely out of the lineup again in Game 4. 

No team has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA playoffs (0-156), so it feels like a matter of when — not if — Boston will win it all. 

In what may be the final NBA Best Bets column of a fun 2023-24 season, I want to say that I appreciate everyone who tailed and supported this season. 

Let’s finish things off with a bang (we still have a preseason Celtics future in pocket) to get to plus money! 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2023-24 season record: 382-384-13 (-5.08 units)
  • Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 1007-942-21 (+34.85 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Boston Celtics Moneyline (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks
  • Jayson Tatum OVER 27.5 Points (-108) — 0.5 unit

Boston Celtics Moneyline (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks

Cue the Vince Carter “it’s over” gif. 

Its Over Basketball GIF by NBA - Find & Share on GIPHY

The Mavs got off to a terrific start in Game 3, and had a massive run in the fourth quarter, yet it still wasn’t enough to beat this Boston team on the road. 

Kyrie Irving played by far his best game of the series, but once again Dallas didn’t get much from its role players (outside of Dereck Lively II) in Game 3.

Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum finally found his offensive game, scoring 31 points in Game 3, and the Celtics continue to be relentlessly attacking Doncic on the defensive end. 

Oddsmakers have already moved this line in favor of Boston from Game 3, and I don’t see Dallas all of a sudden turning things around on Friday. 

The Mavs have yet to score 100 points in a game this series, and I don’t think we’ve seen an A-game from Boston from start to finish all series long. 

It’s a formality at this point, but I’m taking Boston to sweep the Mavs tonight. 

Jayson Tatum OVER 27.5 Points (-108) — 0.5 unit

The final player prop of the season?

 I’m going to trust Jayson Tatum’s scoring — especially if Porzingis sits — in Game 4.

While Jaylen Brown has the Finals MVP award locked up in my eyes, Tatum has led Boston in shots this series, taking 16, 22, and 26 field goals while playing more than 40 minutes in every game. 

Tatum finally shot well enough to score 30+ points in Game 3, and if he’s going to push 22-25 shots, I have to bet on him to go over this number based on his season-long body of work. 

I expect Tatum to play heavy minutes with Dallas trying to avoid the sweep, and at the end of the day, that usage is our best friend in the prop market.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Peter Dewey


Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.