Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Knicks-Celtics, LeBron James, Anthony Davis)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for NBA Opening Night.

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

In the words of Michael Jordan on March 18, 1995: 

I’m back.

In fact, we’re all back, because the 2024-25 NBA season kicks off on Tuesday night after an eventful offseason. 

Earlier this month, I shared the first edition of this season’s Peter’s Points, where I discussed 24 futures bets I’ve placed for the 2024-25 season.

But, as many of our returning readers know, there’s also my daily bets on the NBA every day here at Sports Illustrated. 

From Oct. 22 until the final game of the NBA Finals, I’ll be sharing my best picks every day there is NBA basketball here and on my Twitter (or X if you prefer that) @peterdewey2.

On Tuesday, the Boston Celtics raise their championship banner before taking on the New York Knicks and then LeBron James begins his 22nd season in the NBA when the Los Angeles Lakers host the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I have plays for each game, including a side in the Knicks-Celtics matchup and four props to consider. 

The NBA is back. Let’s talk some ball. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 0-0 (+0.00 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1010-945-22 (+38.09 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Boston Celtics -5.5 (-110) vs. New York Knicks
• Miles McBride OVER 12.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
• LeBron James OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Anthony Davis OVER 1.5 Blocks (-166) – 0.5 unit
• Julius Randle OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-120) – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Boston Celtics -5.5 (-110) vs. New York Knicks

There is a key glaring difference between these teams entering Tuesday night’s matchup.

Continuity.

Boston – even without Kristaps Porzingis playing – returns every rotation player from last season’s title winning team, and it looked like a well-oiled machine during the preseason.

Meanwhile, the Knicks’ rotation is almost completely different outside of Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, Miles McBride and OG Anunoby. With New York waiving injured wing Landry Shamet on Saturday, there are serious depth concerns for the Knicks going forward.

Plus, Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa are both sidelined, meaning the Knicks have some serious questions in their bench unit. No matter how good you think this New York starting lineup will be with Karl-Anthony Towns, there are some major concerns when the stars aren’t on the floor. 

There’s always the worry of a championship hangover with teams, but Joe Mazzulla’s Celtics may be immune to that given how focused they’ve looked in the preseason. Jayson Tatum (lack of playing time in the Olympics) and Jaylen Brown (snubbed from Team USA) both have reasons to prove people wrong this season. 

I would not be shocked to see Boston win this game going away against the new-look Knicks.

Towns may end up being a problem for the C’s defensively, but ultimately I think the start of the season is going to be a feeling out period for the Knicks.

Trust Boston’s continuity to be the difference on Tuesday. 

Miles McBride OVER 12.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit

Over the last few seasons, the Knicks have had some super sixth man options in Immanuel Quickley, Hart and Donte DiVincenzo (before Hart and Donte became starters last season). 

Now, that role belongs to fourth-year guard Miles McBride, who is coming off a career season in the 2023-24 campaign. McBride averaged 8.3 points, 1.5 rebounds and 1.7 assists in less than 20 minutes per game last season – shooting 41.0 percent from 3-point range. 

With Precious Achiuwa out and Shamet getting waived due to his injury, this could be a huge game off the bench for Deuce. 

While McBride may regress a little as a shooter, he’s going to be counted on to play big minutes for the Knicks because of his elite on-ball defense. Don’t be shocked if he clears this number in points alone in the Knicks’ opener. 

LeBron James OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-120) – 0.5 unit

Somehow, in his 21st NBA season, LeBron James set a career-high. 

The Lakers star shot 41.0 percent from 3 last season, averaging 25.7 points per game in the process. He only attempted 5.1 3s per game – his lowest since the 2017-18 season – but I don’t see that number dipping with new head coach J.J. Redick in the fold.

James has averaged at least 2.0 made 3s per game in each of his last six seasons, and now he has a tactical head coach in Redick that should be able to scheme up some open looks. Plus, we know LeBron is good for a heat check or two if he’s feeling it on Tuesday night. 

Minnesota did have the No. 1 defense in the NBA last season, but this line is a little low for James since he’s going to get up his fair share of shots from 3. 

Anthony Davis OVER 1.5 Blocks (-166) – 0.5 unit

Don’t walk, run to the counter to place this bet on Anthony Davis before it moves to 2.5. 

The Lakers star was a serious candidate for the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award in the 2023-24 season, blocking 2.3 shots per game – the 10th time in 12 seasons that he’s averaged at least 2.0 blocks per game.

So, that’s all we’re asking for AD to do on opening night. In four regular season games against the Wolves last season, Davis cleared this prop on three occasions, blocking at least three shots in two of those games. 

Julius Randle OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-120) – 0.5 unit

We didn’t get to see much of Julius Randle in the preseason as he works himself back from shoulder surgery, but he appears to be good to go for Tuesday’s opener – so I’m betting on his discounted props. 

Randle is in a contract year, and he’s averaged at least 8.0 rebounds per game in every season of his career (besides his rookie year where he was hurt in the season opener and missed the rest of the season). 

During his time in New York, Randle averaged 9.9 rebounds per game. He should contend for double-digit boards if Chris Finch is willing to play him somewhat normal minutes on opening night.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.