Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a great prop target on Thursday. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder was a tale of two halves.

Minnesota got off to a strong start, riding 20 first-half points from Julius Randle (who hit a prop we took in this column on Tuesday) to a 48-44 lead. The Wolves looked great on defense, holding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to just 2-of-13 shooting from the field in the first half.

However, things fell apart in the second half, as Oklahoma City's No. 1 overall defense allowed the Wolves to score just 40 points, and SGA made 8-of-14 second-half shots from the field, leading to a blowout win.

The Thunder easily covered the 7.5-point spread, and they now find themselves favored by that same number in Game 2.

I’m avoiding a side in this game, but I do have a pair of player props that I’m looking to bet on for Thursday’s action. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 262-256-4 (-5.97 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1272-1200-26 (+32.12 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 6.5 Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit
• Anthony Edwards OVER 24.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 6.5 Assists (-145) – 0.5 unit

While SGA took a ton of shots in Game 1 and wasn’t exactly super efficient, I was impressed with his playmaking against a Minnesota defense that was selling out to stop him.

Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 6.6 assists per game this postseason, putting up seven or more dimes in half of his games. However, I am intrigued by his potential assists, per NBA.com’s tracking data, as the star guard is averaging 15.6 potential assists per game.

Now, SGA’s teammates need to convert those for him to clear this prop, but the fact that he’s had that many assist-worthy plays is notable. 

Teams have tried to wall off the paint from the All-Star guard this season, but if he continues to trust his teammates, he could soar past this number for the sixth time in his last nine games. 

Anthony Edwards OVER 24.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Game 1 was not a great one for Anthony Edwards, as he took just 13 shots and scored 18 points. Edwards tied his lowest shot output of the playoffs on Tuesday, but I expect him to be much more aggressive in Game 2.

Edwards has five games this postseason with 25 or more points, and he’s averaging 27.2 points per game in his playoff career.

With Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo combining to shoot just 4-for-25 in Game 1, the Timberwolves have to do a better job of getting Ant looks, which should, in turn, open things up for the rest of the offense.

This prop line has dropped since Game 1, but Edwards is averaging 20.4 shot attempts per game in the playoffs – way more than the 13 he took in Game 1. I expect his usage to increase on Thursday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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