Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for A'ja Wilson, Dearica Hamby)

A'ja Wilson and Deariac Hamby are must-bet players on Friday night.

LA Sparks forward Dearica Hamby. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Friday is a day off from the NBA Finals, but that doesn’t mean we can’t bet on basketball tonight. 

The WNBA has a monster four-game slate of Commissioner’s Cup matchups, and I have several bets that I’m looking to place. 

Unfortunately, there aren’t prop odds up for Washington Mystics rookie Aaliyah Edwards, who has put together back-to-back great games in place of Shakira Austin, but if they are released later in the day, I’ll be adding her to my card (make sure to follow on Twitter/X for live updates). 

Even with Edwards not a part of these picks, there are two-star frontcourt players I like in the prop market as well as one side for Friday night’s games. 

With a lot on the line when it comes to the Commissioner’s Cup standings, let’s keep things rolling after a 2-for-2 showing in Wednesday’s WNBA Best Bets. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 16-14 (+0.74 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• A’ja Wilson OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Minnesota Lynx -5.5 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Dearica Hamby OVER 17.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

A’ja Wilson OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-120) – 0.5 unit

Has anyone in the W been as good as A’ja Wilson to open this season?

I don’t think so.

Wilson is averaging 27.9 points and 12.4 rebounds per game this season, going off for 36 points on 15-of-22 shooting in her last game. The Las Vegas Aces star is in a prime spot to keep her strong start going – especially on the glass – against a tough Seattle Storm team on Friday night.

The Storm have been in the middle of the pack regarding rebounding percentage, but these two teams rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the league in pace, which means we should see a ton of possessions – and a ton of opportunities for Wilson to grab rebounds. 

So far this season, Wilson has five games with 12 or more rebounds, and she’s at least grabbed double-digit boards in six of her seven games. She has the fifth-highest rebounding percentage in the league (41.0 percent) and of players who have 100 or more minutes logged on the season, she’s behind Shakira Austin (41.8 percent). 

Keep trusting the MVP candidate to lead the way on Friday. 

Minnesota Lynx -5.5 (-110) vs. Phoenix Mercury

The Phoenix Mercury have fared much better at home (3-1 this season) compared to on the road (1-5), but I still am not sold on backing them as home dogs against the Western Conference-leading Minnesota Lynx. 

Minnesota has the No. 2 defensive rating and the No. 3 net rating in the WNBA this season, and it should make things tough on the Mercury offense (eighth in ORTG, eighth in effective field goal percentage) in this matchup. 

The Mercury have been rolling with a four-guard lineup (Kahleah Copper, Natasha Cloud, Diana Taurasi, and Sophie Cunningham) with Brittney Griner out, and I think that could lead to them getting exposed by Napheesa Collier – an MVP candidate this season – and company in the painted area. 

The Lynx are the best team in the league against the spread – 8-1 – and they’ve gone a perfect 3-0 ATS as a favorite.

Even with oddsmakers now recognizing the Lynx as a top team in the West, I think they can run away with this game given Phoenix’s up-and-down play to open 2024. 

Dearica Hamby OVER 17.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

Dearica Hamby has been one of the most consistent players in the league so far this season, averaging 20.4 points and 11.6 rebounds per game while shooting 54.7 percent from the field. Hamby has at least 17 points in all nine of her games this season, making this line an absolute steal on Friday.

Hamby and the Los Angeles Sparks take on the Dallas Wings in this matchup, and the Wings are down two key players Natasha Howard and Satou Sabally in their frontcourt. 

Dallas’ defense has been an issue all season, ranking 11th out of 12 teams in defensive rating and points in the paint allowed per game (38.5). Hamby should have no problem exposing this on Friday.

Through nine games, Hamby is easily the Sparks’ leading scorer and has attempted at least 12 shots in every game, averaging 14.2 attempts per game overall. 

As long as her usage remains the same, I think she punishes the weak Wings interior defense.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.