Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jonquel Jones, Liberty-Mercury)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets in the WNBA for the action on Tuesday, June 18.
New York Liberty forward Jonquel Jones.
New York Liberty forward Jonquel Jones. / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The basketball world should have all eyes on the WNBA now that the 2023-24 NBA season is in the books, and there are two great matchups on Tuesday night to dive into. 

The Connecticut Sun host the Los Angeles Sparks in the first meeting of the night, but I’m focusing on the nightcap between the Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty for both of my best bets on Tuesday. 

Let’s bounce back after narrowly missing a Napheesa Collier prop last night: 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • 2024 season record: 23-21 (+0.73 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

  • Phoenix Mercury +5 (-110) vs. New York Liberty
  • Jonquel Jones OVER 15.5 Points (-125)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Phoenix Mercury +5 (-110) vs. New York Liberty

I’m higher on this Mercury team than the market is right now, as they’ve looked really solid since Rebecca Allen and Brittney Griner returned to action. 

Phoenix has been great at Footprint Center (5-2) this season, covering the spread in five of those games and posting an impressive 7-3 ATS record as an underdog. 

New York has been on fire – and it may still win this game – but the Liberty are likely down a key player in Courtney Vandersloot (doubtful) that hasn’t hurt them yet on their run, but it could tonight. 

It’s hard to judge this Phoenix team on its season-long numbers, as the addition of Griner not only improves the offense for the Mercury but gives them more rim protection as well. 

Since BG returned, the Mercury are fifth in the league in net rating and 4-0 ATS. Trust them to cover tonight. 

Jonquel Jones OVER 15.5 Points (-125)

Former league MVP Jonquel Jones is playing at an MVP level as of late, scoring 22, 29, and 34 points in her last three games, leading the Liberty to wins over the Sun, Washington Mystics, and Las Vegas Aces. 

The four-time All-Star is averaging 16.8 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game while shooting an insane 58.7 percent from the field and 42.6 percent from 3-point range this season, and her usage has been way up as of late.

Jones has attempted 14, 15, and 16 shots in those three games – three of her four highest shot totals on the season – and she’s paid it off with a ton of points. 

Facing Brittney Griner will be tough, but Jones has shot the 3-ball well, something that could open up more chances for her to score against the bigger Griner. 

It’s fair to wonder if the Liberty let the four-time All-Star go to work, but this prop is too low for how well Jones has played as of late.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Peter Dewey


Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.