Peter’s Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Napheesa Collier, Wings-Lynx)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bet in the WNBA for the Wings-Lynx matchup on Monday, June 17.

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. / Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

Game 5 of the NBA Finals may highlight Monday’s basketball action, but we also have a standalone matchup in the WNBA with the Minnesota Lynx hosting the Dallas Wings.

Minnesota has been the surprise team of the 2024 season, getting off to a 10-3 start and leading the Western Conference through 13 games. Meanwhile, injuries to Satou Sabally, Natasha Howard, and Jaelyn Brown have crushed the Wings, who are just 3-9 on the season and have dropped seven straight games heading into Monday’s clash.

Oddsmakers have given the Lynx – also 10-3 against the spread this season – some major respect in this game, favoring them by 10.5 points. 

While I do think Minnesota is the superior team and likely covers (Dallas is 0-6 against the spread in its last six games) my favorite bet in this game comes in the prop market, on a player who happens to be on my shortlist for MVP candidates in the 2024 season. 

Let’s dive into Monday’s WNBA Best Bet!

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024 season record: 23-20 (+1.23 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

• Napheesa Collier OVER 21.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Napheesa Collier OVER 21.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

Lynx forward Napheesa Collier has been terrific in the 2024 season, averaging 21.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game while shooting 47.1 percent from the field.

Collier gave the Wings trouble in the first meeting between these teams, finishing with 24 points on 10-of-18 shooting, 14 rebounds, four assists, and three steals. I expect her to dominate scoring the ball again on Monday. 

The Dallas defense ranks No. 11 out of 12 teams in defensive rating, and the more concerning factor for the Wings is how they’ve defended the paint. Dallas has allowed the most points in the paint (41.0 per game) in the WNBA this season. 

That sets up well for Collier, who has been decent shooting the 3-ball (32.6 percent) but is elite inside the painted area, shooting 72.3 percent from the field on shots inside three feet. 

With Howard and Sabally out, the Wings lack the frontcourt presence they need to slow down this Minnesota attack. 

Given Collier’s usage (17.0 shots per game, a career-high), I think she’s a must bet to exceed her season average on Monday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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