Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Magic vs. Kings, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Wednesday, Feb. 5, including a pick for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid prop target tonight. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Who doesn’t love an 11-game slate in the NBA just one day before the trade deadline?

While we all wait and see which domino will fall next in the trade market, we might as well place a few bets on the NBA tonight! 

On Wednesday, I’m targeting a total, a player prop for MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a player prop parlay featuring two of the NBA’s brightest young stars.

Here’s a full breakdown of each of my NBA bets for Wednesday, Feb. 5. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 135-141-4 (-3.81 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1145-1086-26 (+34.28 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Orlando Magic-Sacramento Kings UNDER 218 (-108) – 0.5 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Player Prop Parlay (-116) – 0.5 unit

Orlando Magic-Sacramento Kings UNDER 218 (-108) – 0.5 unit

Betting on the Orlando Magic is simple right now. Just keep going back to the UNDER. 

The Magic have not combined for more than 218.5 points – tonight’s total – since their overtime game on Jan. 27 against Miami, and they’ve gone UNDER this number in 19 of their last 21 games (!!) dating all the way back to Dec. 21.

Over their last 10, the Magic are dead last in the NBA in effective field goal percentage and offensive rating.

Now, Sacramento is an uptempo team that can score with the best of them, but the Kings are also a middle of the pack team shooting the ball (14th in effective field goal percentage). 

With Zach LaVine making his Kings debut, I wouldn’t be shocked if there are some growing pains on the offensive end. Plus, Orlando is the No. 2 scoring defense in the league. 

The UNDER is the play until further notice because of how bad this Orlando offense has been. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 31.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit

I absolutely love this number for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Wednesday against a Phoenix Suns team that is just 26th in the NBA in defensive rating on the road. 

Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.2 points per game, clearing 31.5 points in 11 of his last 17 games. Over that stretch, he’s averaging a whopping 35.4 points per game. Earlier this season, SGA scored just 28 points against the Suns, but he shot just 11-for-25 from the field.

For the season, Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting far better than that (53.3 percent from the field), and he could see a few more looks tonight if Jalen Williams (questionable) sits. 

Player Prop Parlay (-116) – 0.5 unit

• Victor Wembanyama 2+ 3-Pointers Made
• Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points
• Walker Kessler 10+ Rebounds

Victor Wembanyama 2+ 3-Pointers Made

Why not bet on Victor Wembanyama to start this player prop parlay?

So far this season, the Atlanta Hawks have really struggled to defend the 3-ball, ranking 28th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game and 26th in opponent 3-point percentage.

That sets up nicely for Victor Wembanyama, who is averaging 3.2 made 3s on 9.0 3-point attempts per game (35.8 percent) in his second NBA season. 

The volume will be there for Wemby on every night, and he’s made at least three shots from deep in eight of 13 games since the start of the New Year – picking up two makes in every one of those matchups. 

Since Dec. 1, Wemby only has three games (out of 25) with fewer than two made 3s. He’s shooting 37.1 percent from deep and is averaging over three made shots from beyond the arc over that stretch. 

Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points

There’s a chance that Paul George returns to the lineup tonight, but if not, this is going to be the Maxey show once again for the Philadelphia 76ers against the Miami Heat. 

Over his last 11 games, Maxey is averaging 33.5 points per game, clearing his actual prop line – 30.5 points – in seven of those matchups. The star guard has also attempted 24.0 shots and 5.8 free throws per game over that stretch, giving him an insane floor when it comes to his scoring props. 

Maxey has 25 or more points in 15 consecutive games. 

Walker Kessler 10+ Rebounds

The Golden State Warriors lack a lot of size in their frontcourt, and while Utah Jazz center Walker Kessler missed the last matchup between these teams, he should be in line for a big game on Wednesday.

Kessler is averaging 11.5 rebounds per game, picking up 10 or more boards in 14 of his last 17 games. Over that stretch, he’s averaging 12.8 boards per night. 

Golden State is just 23rd in opponent rebounds per game this season, making this a great matchup for the Jazz’s starting center.

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