Phillies vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, June 24

Sean Treppedi | Jun 24, 2025

Framber Valdez's emergence to the Astros No. 1 in the rotation has the numbers to back his strikeout prop against the Phillies on Tuesday. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

With Sunday’s crushing of the Mets, the Phillies took sole possession of first place in the NL East. 

Now on a day’s rest, it will face the AL West-leading Astros, who took a series from the Angels to retain a five-game cushion. 

A stellar pitching matchup is on deck as Ranger Suárez (6–1, 2.20 ERA) has been in elite form, delivering seven quality starts in nine outings with an impressive 1.06 WHIP and 52 strikeouts over 57 ⅓ innings.

Then Framber Valdez (8–4, 3.09 ERA) is locked in as Houston’s staff ace, boasting a stellar 26 strikeouts and a 3.00 ERA across his three June starts, including a dominant six-inning performance against Oakland.

Let’s dive into a player prop and game prediction between the two for Tuesday’s series opener. 

Phillies vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Phillies +1.5 (-170)
• Astros -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline

• Phillies (+130)
• Astros (-154)

Total

• Over 7.5 (-105)
• Under 7.5 (-115)

Phillies vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

• Phillies: Ranger Suarez (6-1, 2.20 ERA)
• Astros: Framber Valdez (8-4, 3.09 ERA)

Phillies vs. Astros How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, June 24, 2025
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Daikin Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCSP, Space City Home Network
• Phillies Record: 47-31
• Astros Record: 45-33

Phillies vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bet

•  Framber Valdez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112 at FanDuel)

With an engaging pitching matchup on tap, strikeout props seem like the avenue, though Suarez’s line is set at 4.5 for a -152 price on the Over. Valdez gives a more attractive play with a little value at -112 for over 6.5 strikeouts. He owns a 26.7% strikeout rate, which translates to roughly 8 ½ strikeouts per nine innings. 

Over his last five starts, Valdez has continued that trend, averaging 6.4 strikeouts per game and going over 5.5 strikeouts in four of those outings, including a standout nine-strikeout performance against the Rangers. The Phillies rank 23rd in strikeout rate over the past month, leaving them vulnerable to Valdez’s high-spin curveball and deceptive sequencing. On top of that, Valdez has been particularly comfortable pitching at home, where he’s averaging just over six strikeouts per outing. We can back him with optimism against an extremely aggressive lineup at the plate, such as the Phillies. 

Phillies vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

There’s just no yielding Suarez right now, who is allowing two or fewer runs in six straight starts with a 0.91 ERA during that stretch. His ability to go deep into games has helped neutralize Philadelphia’s shaky bullpen, contributing to low-scoring contests — five of his last six starts have stayed under eight total runs. Advanced metrics back up Suárez’s elite performance, ranking him among the best pitchers in expected ERA, exit velocity, and contact quality. 

On the other hand, we have Valdez, who has a 5-0 record and 2.18 ERA over his last five starts, and has historically excelled against the Phillies with a 1.85 ERA in four meetings. Valdez’s advanced stats indicate continued success, and Houston’s elite bullpen further strengthens their run prevention. With both starters in top form and bullpens capable of holding leads, this matchup profiles as a potential low-scoring pitching duel in Houston.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

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