Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, June 27

Sean Treppedi | Jun 27, 2025

Austin Riley's power hitting metrics as of late draw us to his home run prop against Mick Abel and the Phillies on Friday. / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

The Phillies were rolling with four straight series wins before getting swept in Houston, scoring just one run across three losses, including a 2-1 defeat on Thursday where Christopher Sánchez struck out 11 over six strong innings.

Atlanta went winless in their last two road series, settling for a split against the Mets after two opening wins, and were shut out 4-0 on Thursday—managing just three hits as Grant Holmes took the loss despite a solid five-inning effort with six strikeouts.

Despite the Phillies holding a 9 1/2 game lead over the Braves in the NL East, they are pegged as road underdogs to begin this series.

Top pitching prospect Mick Abel (2-1, 3.47 ERA) will face Bryce Elder (2-4, 4.77 ERA), who has had a rocky campaign through the Braves' struggles.

Here’s how we’re playing the betting board to kick off the weekend series. 

Phillies vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Phillies +1.5 (-144)
• Braves -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline

• Phillies (+144)
• Braves (-172)

Total

• Over 9.5 (+100)
• Under 9.5 (-122)

Phillies vs. Braves Probable Pitchers

• Phillies: Mick Abel (2-1, 3.47 ERA)
• Braves: Bryce Elder (2-4, 4.77 ERA)

Phillies vs. Braves How to Watch

• Date: Friday, June 27, 2025
• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Venue: Truist Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCSP, FDSN South
• Phillies Record: 47-34
• Braves Record: 37-43

Phillies vs. Braves Best MLB Prop Bet

• Austin Riley Anytime HR (+360 at FanDuel)

Riley is slashing .269/.322/.471 with 12 home runs in 80 games, supported by elite hard-hit and barrel rates and a 135 wRC+ in recent weeks that underscores his sustained production. He has hits in six of his last seven games and draws a favorable matchup against Abel, whose surface-level 3.47 ERA hides a 4.18 xFIP and elevated expected batting average — clear signs that his contact-prone arsenal has been masking deeper flaws. Truist Park is a favorable setting for power, particularly to left field, where Riley’s pull-heavy profile plays well. 

Phillies vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

The Phillies have fallen a game behind the Mets in the NL East after getting swept by the Astros, managing just one run over three games. Their offense is clearly missing Bryce Harper, especially against right-handed pitching, as shown by their drop to 103 wRC+ and ranking 22nd in ISO.

Tonight they face Braves starter Bryce Elder, a groundball specialist with a high contact rate but an impressive 3.68 xFIP due to his ability to induce weak contact. Atlanta’s bullpen is among the league’s best and is well-rested entering this series. 

Abel has over performed with a 3.47 ERA that contrasts sharply with his 5.76 xERA and 6.08 FIP, and he’s due for regression. The Braves' offense, which ranks 11th in barrel and hard-hit rates, is positioned to exploit Abel’s contact issues. With Abel unlikely to pitch deep into the game, Philadelphia’s shaky bullpen will likely be tested early. Atlanta, backed by market support and matchup advantages both offensively and on the mound, is the clear side to back tonight.

Pick: Braves -1.5 (+120 at FanDuel)

---

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.