Phillies vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Sunday, May 11

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Cleveland Guardians-Philadelphia Phillies matchup on Sunday night.

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians wrap up a three-game set on Sunday after the Phillies evened the series with a 7-1 win on Saturday.

This matchup is a standalone game on ESPN for Sunday Night Baseball, and one of the best pitchers in the league – Philly’s Zack Wheeler – is on the mound.

The Guardians will counter with Luis Ortiz, who enters this start with a 5.30 ERA in the 2025 season. As a result, oddsmakers have set the Phils as road favorites in this series finale. 

So, how should we bet on it? 

Here’s a complete breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Sunday night’s contest. 

Phillies vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Phillies -1.5 (-102) 
• Guardians +1.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Phillies: -180
• Guardians: +150

Total

• 7.5 (Over +102/Under -122)

Phillies vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

• Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (3-1, 3.35 ERA)
• Cleveland: Luis Ortiz (2-3, 5.30 ERA)

Phillies vs. Guardians How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, May 11
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Progressive Field
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Phillies record: 23-16
• Guardians record: 23-16

Phillies vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Philadelphia Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• Zack Wheeler OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-160)

This season, Zack Wheeler has been great at generating strikeouts, punching out 66 batters in 51.0 innings of work. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage and the 87th percentile in whiff percentage, per Statcast.

While this isn’t the best matchup (Cleveland averages just 7.79 K’s per game), I do think that Wheeler is in a good spot to clear this total on Sunday night.

He’s picked up at least seven K’s in all but one of his outings, and he’s currently setting a career-high in strikeouts per nine innings (11.6) this season. I’ll back him at this discounted number on Sunday.

Phillies vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Best – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Phillies are the bet to make on the road on Sunday night. 

The Phillies have won seven of their last 10 games and are aiming to close out their series with Cleveland with a win on Sunday.

Wheeler is on the mound for the Phils, and he’s been lights out in 2025, posting a 3.35 ERA while striking out 66 batters in 51.0 innings of work. The Phillies are 5-3 in his starts, and I’m buying them in this matchup against Luis Ortiz.

Ortiz allowed six runs (five earned) in his last start against Washington, pushing his ERA to 5.30 on the season. The Guardians are just 3-4 in his outings, and he’s allowed three or more runs on four occasions.

To make matters worse, Cleveland may have a better record (23-16) than it should at this point in the season since it has a minus-14 run differential. For comparison, the Phillies are plus-20 in their run differential and have the same record. 

I’ll bet on Philly to pull out a win in this series finale with a significant advantage on the mound. 

Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-180 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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