Phillies vs. Reds Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 11

Iain MacMillan | Aug 11, 2025

Andrew Abbott and the Reds are home favorites against the Phillies on Monday night. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Phillies have built a 5.5-game lead atop the NL East, riding a three-game win streak heading into this week's action.

They'll start their week with a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have no hope to catch the Milwaukee Brewers atop the NL Central, but they're now just 1.5 games back from the final wild card spot in the National League, making this series a pivotal one for them moving forward.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bets for this NL series opener.

Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Phillies +1.5 (-194)
• Reds -1.5 (+160)

Moneyline

• Phillies +104
• Reds -122

Total

• Over 9.5 (-114)
• Under 9.5 (-106)

Phillies vs. Reds Probable Pitchers

• Philadelphia: Taijuan Walker, RHP (4-5, 3.53 ERA)
• Cincinnati: Andrew Abbott, LHP (8-2, 2.34 ERA)

Phillies vs. Reds How to Watch

• Date: Monday, August 11
• Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCSP, FanDuel Sports Network Ohio
• Phillies Record: 68-49
• Reds Record: 62-57

Phillies vs. Reds Best MLB Prop Bet

• Taijuan Walker OVER 3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+120) via DraftKings

My main target in this game is to fade Taijuan Walker. Of all the starting pitchers in the Major Leagues, Walker has one of the biggest discrepancies between his ERA and his FIP (Field Independent Pitching). His ERA sits at a solid 3.53, but his FIP is at 5.00.

That, along with a 1.304 WHIP, tells me some significant regression is likely to come for Walker, and tonight's game against the Reds makes a lot of sense for when that regression will creep in.

Phillies vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

I'm going to stick with the theme of fading Walker, as I wrote above, and bet the Reds to win this game as home favorites. Andrew Abbott has been lights out for the Reds, rocking a 2.34 ERA and a 1.127 WHIP.

The Phillies have struggled at times against left-handed pitchers this season. Their OPS drops from .750 to .730 against lefties, and they've been striking out at a rate of 23.2% against them.

The Reds' offense stumbled out of the gates after the All-Star Break, but a 14-run performance against the Pirates on Sunday is a sign they may have woken up. I'll back them as home favorites in this spot.

Pick: Reds -122 via FanDuel

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