Phillies vs. Twins Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for Wednesday, July 24 (Trust Aaron Nola)

Can the Phillies stay hot when Aaron Nola is on the mound?

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola. / Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies are the best team in baseball right now, and they’re looking to continue its impressive trend in Aaron Nola’s starts this season when they take on the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday.

Minnesota is in second in the AL Central, sitting five games behind the Cleveland Guardians. The Twins are just 4-6 in their last 10 games, but they’ve been a solid team at home all season, going seven games over .500 (28-21). 

It appears the Twins will use a bullpen game on Wednesday with Steven Okert getting the start, but will that be enough to beat Nola and this vaunted Phillies offense that has a +110 run differential this season?

Let’s break down the odds, probable pitchers and a prediction for this matinee matchup on Wednesday. 

Phillies vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Phillies -1.5 (+114)
• Twins +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline

• Phillies: -148
• Twins: +124

Total

• 8 (Over -108/Under -112)

Phillies vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

• Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.54 ERA)
• Minnesota: Steven Okert (3-1, 4.40 ERA)

Phillies vs. Twins How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, July 24
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Field
• How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports Philadelphia, Bally Sports North
• Phillies record: 64-37
• Twins record: 55-45

Phillies vs. Twins Key Players to Watch

Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nola: The Phillies are 15-5 in Nola’s 20 outings this season, and the righty has 16 starts where he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs. Nola is coming off a rough outing (five innings, six hits, four earned runs) on July 19, but he had thrown six innings or more in five straight starts before that. He’s in a solid bounce-back spot today.  

Minnesota Twins

Byron Buxton: Even though he’s been limited to just 76 games, Buxton has been great for the Twins when in the lineup, slashing .277/.329/.500 with 11 homers, 40 runs batted in and six stolen bases. With Carlos Correa and Jose Miranda on the injured list, there’s more pressure on Buxton to produce in the coming weeks. 

Phillies vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Minnesota’s bullpen has been solid in the 2024 season, posting a 3.66 ERA, but every time a team uses a bullpen game, I am worried about all of the arms in action holding up. 

That’s especially true against a Phillies offense that ranks inside the top five in the league in OPS, runs scored and hits in the 2024 season. 

The Phils have thrived when Nola is on the mound, winning 14 of the 15 starts in 2024 where he’s pitched at least six innings. 

Plus, over the last 15 days, the Twins have been awful offensively, ranking 26th in the league in OPS and 28th in runs scored. That should benefit Nola and the Philly pitching staff, so I’ll trust the league’s best team to grab a road win on Wednesday. 

Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-148)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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