Pirates vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, June 12

Sean Treppedi | Jun 12, 2025

Jameson Taillon has been stellar in avoiding walks, which points us to his prop — albeit expensive — against the Pirates on Thursday. / David Banks-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on Thursday for a series opener between the polar opposite sides of the NL Central. 

The Cubs are reeling off a 7-2 loss to the Phillies, but remain five games in first place and 13 ½ ahead of Pittsburgh. 

Veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon (6-3, 3.54 ERA) will start for Chicago riding a four-game winning streak, including a seven-inning, one-run gem against Detroit over the weekend. 

The Pirates are playing their fourth straight game under interim manager Don Kelly and have been able to string together a 6-4 record over their last ten contests.

Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.24 ERA) starts for Pittsburgh, who rebounded impressively in his last outing following a brief calf scare. 

Pirates vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Pirates +1.5 (-130)
• Cubs -1.5 (+108)

Moneyline

• Pirates (+166)
• Cubs (-198)

Total

• Over 8 (-114)
• Under 8 (-106)

Pirates vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

• Pirates: Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.24 ERA)
• Cubs: Jameson Taillon (6-3, 3.54 ERA)

Pirates vs. Cubs How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 12, 2025
• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet-PIT, Marquee Sports Network
• Tigers Record: 28-41
• Cubs Record: 41-27

Pirates vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

• Jameson Taillon Under 1.5 Walks (-175 at DraftKings)

Yes, this is expensive, and it almost needs to be a lock for me to suggest this prop. Taillon is one of the game’s best at commanding the zone and avoiding walks to where he’s allowing 1.65 per nine innings this season.

His 4.7% walk rate puts him in the 92 percentile on Statcast and he’s walked 0 or 1 batters in 10 of his 12 starts. Pittsburgh likes to chase early in counts and fails to extend at-bats. Taillon also avoids deep counts by relying on a pitch-to-contact approach, which can only be that more effective against a weak offense like the Pirates.

Pirates vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

The Cubs already tagged Heaney for four runs in 4 ⅔ innings earlier this season and enter this matchup with one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking third in wRC+ and fourth in OPS. 

Despite Heaney’s solid surface stats this season, his 4.70 xERA and career-worst 9.4% K-BB% suggest he’s due for some regression. 

Meanwhile, there’s no faith to put behind this Pittsburgh offense, ranking 27th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. Plus, Heaney’s profile has been the weakest link in a rotation that has been pretty sound over the last month.

Taillon, on the other hand, has never been a potent strikeout pitcher, but he’s shown across-the-board improvement from last year; both his xERA and xFIP are down since then.

It’s modest value, but I’m comfortable enough to lay the runs on the Cubs at home against a Pirates offense (.229/.307/.343) that can’t provide run support to save its life. 

Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+108 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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