Pirates vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, May 13

The Pirates are just 16-26 on the run line in the 2025 season.

The New York Mets are 4-3 in Kodai Senga's starts this season. / Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The New York Mets are looking to take back-to-back games against the Pittsburgh Pirates after pulling out a 4-3 win on Monday despite having to face Pirates ace Paul Skenes.

As has been a common theme for the Pirates this season, they failed to get enough run support for Skenes, and things will undoubtedly be tougher on Tuesday with Mitch Keller on the bump against Kodai Senga. 

Senga has a 1.16 ERA for the Mets this season, yet New York is just 4-3 in his seven appearances.

Can the Pirates pull off the upset as +215 underdogs on Tuesday? I’m not buying it.

Here’s a breakdown of why, including my favorite prop bet for Tuesday’s action. 

Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Pirates +1.5 (+100)
• Mets -1.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Pirates: +215
• Mets: -265

Total

• 7.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Pirates vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (1-4, 4.40 ERA)
• New York: Kodai Senga (4-2, 1.16 ERA)

Pirates vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, May 13
• Time: 7:10 p.m, EST
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): SNY, SportsNet PT
• Pirates record: 14-28
• Mets record: 27-15

Pirates vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bets

Mets Best MLB Prop Bet 

• Kodai Senga OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-180)

Even though the Pirates have one of the worst offenses in MLB, they rank 10th in the league in walks drawn, which should help them in a big way on Tuesday night.

Senga has been great in 2025, but he has struggled with free passes, allowing 4.0 walks per nine innings. He’s walked at least two batters in six of his seven outings, and he’s allowed eight free passes in two outings this month.

This prop is a pretty solid value on Tuesday night.

Pirates vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Mets should roll in Game 2 of this series: 

The Pittsburgh Pirates remain dead last in MLB in runs scored after putting up just three runs to waste yet another gem from ace Paul Skenes on Monday night. 

Now, Pittsburgh is a massive underdog against Kodai Senga and the Mets in Game 2 of this series. Senga has been lights out in 2025, posting a 1.16 ERA across seven appearances. 

While the Mets are shockingly just 4-3 in those games, Senga has not allowed more than two earned runs in a single outing.

That bodes well for New York on Tuesday, as it takes on Mitch Keller (4.50 ERA), who has given up three or more runs in five of his eight outings. As a result, the Pirates are just 2-6 when he takes the mound this season. 

New York also has a much better offense than Pittsburgh, ranking seventh in MLB in runs scored and fifth in OPS. 

Pittsburgh’s lack of run support has led to it posting the second-worst run line record (16-26) in MLB this season. I’ll gladly fade the Pirates on Tuesday night. 

Pick: Mets -1.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.