Pirates vs. Padres Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Wednesday, Aug. 14 (San Diego Set to Sweep?)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Pittsburgh Pirates-San Diego Padres matchup on Wednesday.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Martin Perez. / Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

Things can’t get much worse for the Pittsburgh Pirates, as they’ve now dropped nine games in a row and are well out of the mix for a playoff spot in the National League. 

Pittsburgh has scored just one run in two games against the San Diego Padres this week, failing to capitalize on some solid pitching (they allowed just five runs). Now, the Pirates are looking to avoid the sweep on Wednesday with one of their former pitchers – veteran lefty Martin Perez – on the mound for the Padres. 

Oddsmakers are giving the Padres the edge in this one, but Pirates righty Mitch Keller is on the bump, and he’s led them to an impressive 16-7 record in 23 starts this season. 

Here’s a look at the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for Wednesday’s action. 

Pirates vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Pirates +1.5 (-180)
• Padres -1.5 (+150)

Moneyline

• Pirates: +114
• Padres: -135

Total

• 8.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Pirates vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (10-6, 3.56 ERA)
• Padres: Martin Perez (2-5, 4.78 ERA)

Pirates vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Aug. 14
• Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Extra Innings, AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh
• Pirates record: 56-63
• Padres record: 68-53

Pirates vs. Padres Key Players to Watch

Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller: Keller has been solid in 2024, but he was awful in his last start, allowing seven runs in four innings. Still, he’s led the Pirates to a 16-7 record in his 23 outings, posting a solid ERA (3.56) and expected ERA (3.95). 

San Diego Padres 

David Peralta: The longtime Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder has been solid for the Padres, hitting a solo home run in the 3-0 win on Tuesday. Peralta is now hitting .262 with five homers in 58 games in 2024. 

Pirates vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

I simply can’t take the Pirates to win a game right now, as they’ve come up short time and time again over the last two weeks, scoring one or fewer runs in three of their last four games. 

Keller has been solid in 2024, but he’s posted a 4.53 ERA over his last eight starts, posting a couple clunkers along the way. The Pirates are still 6-2 in those outings, but can they score enough to get a win this afternoon?

I’m not sold on it. 

Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half of the league in OPS against left-handed pitching, and Perez seems to have found something in San Diego.

The former All-Star has thrown 13 innings over two starts with the Padres, allowing just six hits and three runs, leading the Padres to two wins. 

Pittsburgh is now three games under .500 on the road this season, and I think it’s a steal to fade it at this price – even with Keller on the bump. 

Pick: Padres Moneyline (-135)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.