Pirates vs. Royals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 7

Sean Treppedi | Jul 7, 2025

The Pirates scoreless offense over their last three games is due to bounce back against a more futile Kansas City lineup. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Royals enter their matchup against Pittsburgh on Monday playing competitive baseball, having split their last 10 games while leaning slightly toward low-scoring outcomes. 

Left-hander Noah Cameron (2-4, 2.56 ERA) gets the start after throwing 4 ⅔ shutout innings with five strikeouts against Seattle in his last outing.

The Pirates head into Monday’s game with some momentum despite a recent sweep to Seattle that features 0 total runs. For what it’s worth, they have still won six of their last 10 behind solid pitching performances. 

Andrew Heaney (4-7, 4.16 ERA) will take the mound also having tossed a shutout performance worth 6 ⅔ innings and seven strikeouts against St. Louis in his most recent start.

Let’s dig into how we’re betting on this game with a player prop and a prediction.

Pirates vs. Royals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Pirates +1.5 (-162)
• Royals -1.5 (+134)

Moneyline

• Pirates (+126)
• Royals (-148)

Total

• Over 9 (-102)
• Under 9 (-120)

Pirates vs. Royals Probable Pitchers

• Pirates: Andrew Heaney (4-4, 4.16 ERA)
• Royals: Noah Cameron (2-4, 2.56 ERA)

Pirates vs. Royals How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 7, 2025
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet-PIT, FDSN Kansas City
• Pirates Record: 38-53
• Royals Record: 43-48

Pirates vs. Royals Best MLB Prop Bet

• Nick Gonzales Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115 at FanDuel)

I have to take the only Pirates player to have three hits over the three-game sweep to Seattle to catch a wave on Monday. This offense is due to positively regress and Gonzales, who was the only Pirate to hit a double in that measly series, is the best chance to shake off the rust.

His road splits are drastically more effective, slashing .327/.340/.577. Moreover, he’s hitting .500 against lefties on the road. Cameron's pitch mix — heavy on fastballs and curveballs — offers hit ability to Gonzales. His .280 average allowed to right-handed batters means Gonzales, who slugs .560 with a .893 OPS against lefties, has an optimal matchup.

Pirates vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Despite dwelling 16 ½ games in last place of its division, Pittsburgh has some quiet value against the Royals. The Pirates have averaged 4.5 runs to the Royals’ 4.1 over the last 10 games.

The Bucs delivered potent pitching too, combining for a 1.57 ERA over that span, including three straight shutouts. Kansas City is the worst-scoring team in baseball at just 3.3 runs per game. This anemic lineup owns the second-fewest home runs (63) and a sub-.250 batting average.

The Pirates are at least capable of showing life offensively in spurts and are trending in a better direction against left-handers over the last 10 games with a .253 average as opposed to their .222 season average.

Plus, Kauffman Stadium has been unfriendly territory to the home team; the Royals are just 20-24 at home.

Pick: Pirates (+126 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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