Pirates vs. Royals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 8

Sean Treppedi | Jul 8, 2025

The Royals look to break a bad trend as home favorites against the Pirates on Tuesday. / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Royals opened up their series against the Pirates with a 9-3 win, powered by Bobby Witt Jr.’s three RBI and a strong seven-inning outing from Noah Cameron, who struck out seven and allowed just two runs.

Kansas City will send out Seth Lugo (6-5, 2.65 ERA) on Tuesday, who has been a reliable presence for the Royals, mixing efficiency with command to consistently limit damage, especially at home where his ERA sits at a strong 2.42.

Despite his poor surface level stats, Mitch Keller (3-10, 3.64 ERA) has pitched better than they suggest, coming off a scoreless seven-inning gem and maintaining solid road numbers with a 3.16 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

Here’s how I’m playing this matchup. 

Pirates vs. Royals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Pirates +1.5 (-184)
• Royals -1.5 (+152)

Moneyline

• Pirates (+116)
• Royals (-132)

Total

• Over 9.5 (-124)
• Under 9.5 (+102)

Pirates vs. Royals Probable Pitchers

• Pirates: Mitch Keller (3-10, 3.64 ERA)
• Royals: Seth Lugo (6-5, 2.65 ERA)

Pirates vs. Royals How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 8, 2025
• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: Kaufmann Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet-PIT, FDSN KC
• Pirates Record: 38-54
• Royals Record: 44-48

Pirates vs. Royals Best MLB Prop Bet

• Seth Lugo Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-125 at BetMGM)

There’s not much reason for backing Lugo in any other markets against the Pirates considering the lines and prices, but for -125, hits is the way to go against this utterly futile Pittsburgh lineup. Lugo has relinquished five or fewer hits in 6 of his last 7 starts and with a 1.09 WHIP, he should be able to set sail through this start facing a team who have scored three runs in its last four games. 

Pirates vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

I was wrong to think that the Pirates could ever take advantage of matchup and ballpark factors leaning in their favor yesterday.

Forget that the Royals have lost 11 of their last 12 games as a home favorite — the Pirates are simply incapable of providing any reliable run support whatsoever. Lugo has held opponents to two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts and although he struggles to cap contact and get outs on his own, the Pirates are dead last in generating wRC+.

Keller is on the opposite end of the spectrum where his advanced metrics say he’s better than his results, and even given the fact that the Pirates are an above average club in defensive runs saved, I’m going to side with Lugo at a low-run scoring stadium like Kauffman. 

Pick: Royals (-132 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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