Pirates vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, June 17

The Tigers are heavily favored with Casey Mize on the mound.

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize is a solid prop target on Tuesday. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Detroit Tigers open their three-game series on Tuesday night with an interesting pitching matchup to dive into.

Casey Mize (6-2, 2.95 ERA) is on the mound for the Tigers as he looks to build on a strong start to the 2025 campaign where he’s led his team to 7-4 record in 11 outings.

The Pirates will counter with lefty Bailey Falter, who enters this start with a 3.36 ERA in the 2025 campaign. Falter has been one of the few Pirates that has been able to lead his team to wins, as Pittsburgh is 8-6 in his 14 outings.

Oddsmakers have the Tigers – who lead the AL Central – set as massive favorites on Tuesday night. Can they come through and extend their lead in the division?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for tonight’s series opener. 

Pirates vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line 

• Pirates +1.5 (-124)
• Tigers -1.5 (+102)

Moneyline

• Pirates: +167
• Tigers: -206

Total

• 8 (Over -114/Under -106)

Pirates vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

• Pittsburgh: Bailey Falter (5-3, 3.36 ERA) 
• Detroit: Casey Mize (6-2, 2.95 ERA)

Pirates vs. Tigers How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, June 17
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Comerica Park
• How to Watch (TV): FDSDET, SportsNet PT
• Pirates record: 29-44
• Tigers record: 46-27

Pirates vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bets

Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Casey Mize OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)

While Mize has less strikeouts (55) than innings pitched (61) this season, I still like the matchup on Tuesday against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh averages 8.66 strikeouts per game this season (21st in MLB), and that number jumps to 8.83 per game on the road.

While Mize hasn’t been a dominant strikeout pitcher, he still has five or more strikeouts in six of his 11 outings. At even money, this prop is worth a look on Tuesday night. 

Pirates vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

No team in Major League Baseball has scored less runs than the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Pittsburgh has been an elite UNDER team because of it.

The UNDER is 43-27-3 in the Pirates’ games – the second-best mark in MLB – and with Falter on the mound, I think we could see another low-scoring affair in this series opener.

Falter has an expected ERA of 3.57 this season, which is just slightly worse than Mize (3.21). The Pirates lefty has a 1.61 ERA in eight starts since May 1, and he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of those outings.

On the Tigers’ side, Mize has given up three or fewer earned runs in nine of his 11 outings, and there is just one time all season that Mize has started a game and the opponent finished the game with more than five runs. 

Since the Pirates’ offense has struggled so much in 2025, I have no problem backing both of these starters to keep these offenses in check in the early going. 

Pick: UNDER 8 (-106 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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