Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 17 (Bucs Defense Will Shut Down Chuba Hubbard)

Iain MacMillan | Dec 26, 2024

Bet the UNDER on Chuba Hubbard's rushing yards total in Week 17 against the Buccaneers. / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

There are just two weeks left of the NFL regular season and we're coming into the penultimate slate of games off a winning week of player props. We went 6-4 for +1.05 units in Week 16, but we still have a long way to go if we want to be profitable for the sweep.

With two games already in the books on Wednesday, we're focusing on the other 14 games for Week 17 including a play on the Thursday Night Football showdown between the Seahawks and Bears. Let's start the countdown.

• Player Prop Season-to-Date Record: 77-82-1 for -6.4 units

NFL Best Prop Bets for Week 17

10) Ameer Abdullah Anytime Touchdown (+275) via Caesars

Ameer Abdullah has started to have a close-to-even split with Alexander Mattison for offensive snaps in recent weeks but the Raiders may start to lean on Abdullah even more on Sunday after he averaged 5.43 yards per carry last week.

Abdullah has also been a great receiving weapon out of the backfield, combining for 12 receptions for 105 yards over their last two games. He also comes into this game against a bad Saints defense having scored in the Raiders' last two games. The Saints' defense is second last in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate since Week 10. Abdullah is a great bet to find the end zone at almost 3-1 odds.

9) Kyler Murray UNDER 228.5 Pass Yards (-114) via FanDuel

Kyler Murray's career numbers in December continue to decline. Throughout his career, he's gotten worse as the season goes on and he's now averaging just 221.3 passing yards per game in 22 December starts. That's down from 260.2 in September, 241.7 in October, and 230.8 in November.

Now he has to play in a meaningless game against a Rams defense that has shown flashes of greatness in recent weeks. I expect him to continue to implode and stay well under his set total of 228.5 passing yards.

8) Bo Nix UNDER 233.5 Pass Yards (-115) via BetMGM

The Broncos' offensive numbers have dwindled when playing on the road this season and that goes along with Bo Nix's production. He's averaging 46.4 fewer yards per game on the road and his quarterback rating drops from 94.7 to 78.0.

You may be tempted to take the OVER considering he's playing against a bad Bengals defense, but keep in mind that Cincinnati has allowed just 5.7 yards per pass attempt in their last three games, the ninth best mark in the NFL in that time frame. They're also ninth in opponent dropback EPA since Week 12.

7) Calvin Ridley Longest Reception OVER 22.5 Yards (-120) via BetMGM

The Jaguars have allowed 66 passing plays of 20+ yards this season, the most in the NFL by 11. Their secondary has been by far the worst in the league in 2024, which should be a great matchup for Calvin Ridley. It's also worth noting Ridley has had a receptions of at least 23 yards in eight of his last 10 games. I see no reason why he can have another long reception on Sunday in the AFC South Toilet Bowl.

6) Malik Washington Anytime Touchdown (+270) via DraftKings

With Jaylen Waddle out, Malik Washington has proven his worth to the Dolphins. The rookie has emerged in recent weeks, hauling in eight receptions for 80 yards in those games. If Waddle is out again on Sunday, I expect the Dolphins to turn to Washington even more as he continues to impress. This is a great opportunity to buy low on a new offensive weapon for the Dolphins.

5) Sam Darnold OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-105) via BetMGM

Sam Darnold has already thrown 11 interceptions this season, including throwing a pick to the Packers in Week 4, and now he and the Vikings will rematch the Packers on Sunday. Green Bay is averaging 1.0 interceptions per game in 2024 and its secondary has done nothing but improve in recent weeks. The Packers' secondary now leads the NFL in opponent dropback EPA since Week 10. I think Darnold throws at least one pick in this game.

4) Jayden Daniels OVER 47.5 Rush yards (-110) via BetMGM

The Falcons' defense continuously has been torched by mobile quarterbacks in recent years. Their lack of ability to create a significant pass rush leaves quarterbacks with options if they can't find any receivers open. Jayden Daniels is averaging 49.1 rushing yards per game and now with this being a big prime-time game with a lot on the line, he'll be incentivized to take off even more than usual. All he has to do is hit his season average for rushing yards and this bet will be a winner.

3) Chuba Hubbard UNDER 73.5 Rush Yards (-115) via BetMGM

The Buccaneers' defense has become one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL lately. Since Week 10, they rank second in opponent rush EPA and fourth in opponent rush success rate. They've also allowed just 2.8 yards per carry over their last three games.

Chuba Hubbard managed just 43 yards on 12 carries against the Buccaneers on December 1st. Now, with the Panthers likely playing from behind, Hubbard may not get enough carries to reach this high total on Sunday.

2) DK Metcalf Longest Reception OVER 23.5 Yards (-120) via FanDuel

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has taken over as the top receiver for the Seahawks but DK Metcalf remains their biggest deep threat. He has had a reception of at least 25 yards in nine of his 13 games this season. Now, he gets to face a Bears secondary that has allowed 53 passes of 20+ yards this season, the fourth most in the NFL.

I'll bet Metcalf to once again have a receptions of 25+ yards on Thursday night.

1) Saquon Barkley OVER 108.5 Rush Yards (-115) via BetMGM

The Cowboys' secondary has been fantastic of late, but teams are still able to run the ball against them with plenty of success. They're allowing 4.8 yards per carry while also ranking dead last in opponent rush EPA.

Saquon Barkley ran for just 66 yards against the Cowboys earlier this season but with the game getting out of hand quickly, the Eagles took him out of the game with plenty of time still left on the clock. If that doesn't happen this time, he should torch this Dallas defense. It's also worth noting that with Jalen Hurts banged-up, they may lean on their rushing game even more.

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