Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, Feb. 11

Reed Wallach | Feb 10, 2025

Feb 7, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) celebrates a basket with Purdue Boilermakers forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (4) during the first half against the USC Trojans at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Two of the Big Ten’s best do battle in Ann Arbor on Tuesday night. 

Michigan has won four straight since getting blown out at Purdue by 27 points back on January 24th. Now, the Wolverines play host to the Boilermakers in hopes of exacting some revenge and climbing the Big Ten standings. 

Can Purdue, paced by lead guard Braden Smith, score a massive road victory to improve its standing in the league and make it 11 wins in the last 12 games? 

Here’s our betting preview for this conference showdown. 

Purdue vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Purdue: +2 (-110)
• Michigan: -2 (-110)

Moneyline

• Purdue: +120
• Michigan: -144

Total: 149 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Purdue vs. Michigan How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, February 11th
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Crisler Center
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Purdue Record: 19-5
• Michigan Record: 18-5

Purdue vs. Michigan Key Players to Watch

Purdue

Trey Kaufman-Renn: The junior forward has been playing at an insanely high level in the Boilermakers last four games, all wins. He has scored 23 or more in three of the four games while excelling in the two-man game with Braden Smith. Kaufman-Renn has a top 10 effective field goal percentage at nearly 60% and has proven to be a sound offensive rebounder as well. 

Michigan

Danny Wolf: The Yale transfer continues to be one of the most dynamic players in the country, fresh off a 20-point, nine rebound outing at Michigan in which he added five assists and a block. At seven feet and essentially playing point guard for the Wolverines, Wolf is an incredibly tough cover for any team. 

Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Michigan has been playing with fire for a bit now, winning four straight by a combined margin of 14 points against four teams below .500 in Big Ten play. If you zoom out even further, the Wolverines have the 27-point loss against Purdue mixed in with an overtime win against Northwestern and a loss at Minnesota in overtime. 

The Wolverines are a strong team, but have struggled as a big favorite because of its inability to protect the ball. The team is 332nd in the country in turnover rate. Against Purdue in the first meeting, Michigan’s turnover rate was 31%, about 11% higher than its season long mark. 

Purdue was off a loss to Ohio State at home in the first meeting, so there were some factors pushing the team towards a strong performance, but this is the best defense in Big Ten play at forcing turnovers, so I don’t expect this mismatch to be minimized all that much. 

The Boilermakers offense has been elite all season. With Smith at the helm, the Purdue offense has plenty of levers to pull, ranking 12th in effective field goal percentage on a healthy diet of perimeter shooting and scoring on the inside. 

The Boilermakers have an elite defense at denying the rim, which will likely dictate this game. If the team can keep Vladislav Goldin and the Wolverines' paint offense in check, the Boilermakers have plenty of answers to score a road win. 

I can’t look past Michigan’s turnover woes in this matchup, I’ll take the bucket with the underdog Boillermakers. 

PICK: Purdue +2 (-110, available at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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