Purdue vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds and Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Tuesday, Feb. 18

Reed Wallach | Feb 18, 2025

Feb 15, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (4) keeps the ball away from Wisconsin Badgers forward Nolan Winter (31) during the first half at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Purdue and Michigan State meet in a marquee Big Ten matchup on Tuesday night. 

The Spartans bounced back after a stunning loss to Indiana last week by rallying to beat Illinois on the road. The team welcomes Purdue, who is on the heels of two straight losses to elite Big Ten teams in Michigan on the road and home against Wisconsin. 

In East Lansing, Michigan State has the edge in the eyes of oddsmakers, laying a small number at home in what should be a high-level matchup. Can the Boilermakers avoid a three-game skid? 

Here’s our betting preview for Tuesday’s showdown. 

Purdue vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Purdue: +3.5 (-114)
• Michigan State: -3.5 (-106)

Moneyline

• Purdue: +132
• Michigan State: -160

Total: 148.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Purdue vs. Michigan State How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, February 18th
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Jack Breslin Students Event Center
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock
• Purdue Record: 19-7
• Michigan State Record: 20-5

Purdue vs. Michigan State Best Prop Bets

Purdue

Braden Smith OVER 7.5 Assists (-118)

The engine behind the Boilermakers offense, Smith continues to have the ball on a string and pick defenses apart. He is fresh off a 12-assist effort against Wisconsin and has hit double digits in seven of 15 Big Ten games this season. While we need less than that to get over this mark, the high ceiling makes me bullish on his ability to get over this number against a Spartans defense that is willing to allow teams to move the ball both inside and out. 

Michigan State

Jase Richardson OVER 12.5 Points (-125)

Richardson continues to get more and more run as the season progresses, shining in Big Ten games against Rutgers (20 points) and Oregon (29). I’ll back him to keep it up against a Purdue team that should play into Richardson’s strength, allowing a ton of mid-range jump shots this season. 

Richardson has been a stud in the mid-range and one of the lone bright spots from the perimeter this season at nearly 38% from beyond the arc. 

I’m going to bank on more usage moving forward for Richardson, who has cleared this mark in two of the last three games, and go over once again.

Purdue vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

This matchup sets up nicely for the Boilermakers, who can work its strong two-man game with Smith and Trey Kauffman-Ren that has made for the best offense in terms of KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency this season. 

The Boilermakers are a devastating team inside, tops in the league in two-point field goal percentage, but have been able to make life hard for defenses with Smith’s ability to find open shooters as the team is hitting 36% of its three-point attempts (fifth in conference play). 

Against Michigan State, who has the lowest three-point rate in the league and hits them at a nationally poor rate, 353rd in the country, the Boilermakers can put the screws to this team even on the road. The Boilermakers are an incredibly stout rim denial defense, posting the second-highest three-point rate allowed while turning teams over at the highest rate. When teams take the ball inside, it’s likely turning into the ball landing in the Boilermakers' possession. 

This is impactful as Sparty is 15th in Big Ten turnover percentage. 

While the team was able to pull ahead late in the game against Illinois, Purdue is far more capable of putting together a strong two-way effort on the road and keeping this game within a bucket. 

PICK: Purdue +3.5 (-120, available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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