Raiders vs. Broncos Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 10

Denver is a double-digit favorite against Las Vegas in Week 10.

The Denver Broncos and quarterback Bo Nix are favored in Week 10. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

An AFC West rivalry matchup takes place in Week 10 of the NFL season, as the Denver Broncos host the Las Vegas Raiders as they aim to win a seventh game in a row.

Denver is in first place in the division after winning each of its last six games, coming back from a 15-7 deficit against the Houston Texans to win on a walk-off field goal in Week 9. The Broncos have not been elite when it comes to covering the spread (4-4-1), but they are tied atop the AFC West (record wise) entering this game.

Denver doesn’t have reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II, but it should be able to handle a Las Vegas offense that ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in EPA/Play this season.

The Raiders are coming off an overtime loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars, as they went for two in the final seconds and failed to convert, losing 30-29. Las Vegas has just two wins this season, and it’s well out of the playoff mix in the AFC.

Geno Smith did have his best game of the season with Brock Bowers back in action, throwing four scores while finding Bowers 12 times for over 100 yards and three of those touchdowns. 

Oddsmakers have set Denver as a double-digit favorite on Thursday night, but can it cover the spread in this rivalry matchup?

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch and my prediction for the opening game in Week 10. 

Raiders vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Raiders +10 (-110)
• Broncos -10 (-110)

Moneyline

• Raiders: +400
• Broncos: -535

Total

• 42.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Raiders vs. Broncos How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 6
• Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
• How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
• Raiders record: 2-6
• Broncos record: 7-2

Raiders vs. Broncos Betting Trends

• The Raiders are 3-5 against the spread this season.
• The Broncos are 4-4-1 against the spread this season.
• The Broncos are 2-2 against the spread at home this season.
• The Broncos have won six games in a row.
• The Raiders have lost two games in a row.
• Las Vegas is 1-3 straight up on the road.
• Denver is 4-0 straight up at home this season.
• The Raiders are 1-3 against the spread on the road this season.

Raiders vs. Broncos Injury Reports

Raiders Injury Report

• TBA

Broncos Injury Report

• TBA
• Patrick Surtain II – out

Raiders vs. Broncos Key Players to Watch

Geno Smith, Quarterback, Las Vegas Raiders

Geno Smith has struggled this season, but he turned things around a bit with Brock Bowers back in Week 9.

Smith completed 29 of his 39 passes for 284 yards, four scores and just one pick, improving his season-long numbers to 11 scores and 11 picks in eight games. It’s not great, but Smith showed he is capable of moving the offense – something that did not look possible at times over the first seven games of the season.

Denver ranks No. 1 in the NFL in sack percentage and is a top-five team in the league in EPA/Pass. It’s going to make things tough on Smith and this offense, and if the Raiders aren’t able to consistently move the ball through the air, they’re going to struggle against a Denver team that allowed just 15 points in Week 9 and entered that matchup at eighth in the NFL in points allowed. 

Raiders vs. Broncos Prediction and Pick

This game is going to be won by the Denver defense, as it ranks in the top five in the league in EPA/Play and the Raiders are a bottom five team in EPA/Play on offense.

Las Vegas’ offensive line has struggled, as Ashton Jeanty has been hit behind the line a ton this season and the Raiders rank 25th in the league in sack percentage. That’s going to be a problem against a Denver team that is No. 1 in the league in sack percentage and still held Houston to just five field goals without Patrick Surtain in Week 9.

I am worried about Denver’s offense showing up early in this game, as it has fallen apart early against New York and Houston, but the Texans also have a top-five unit in EPA/Play this season.

Denver rallied to score over 30 points in the fourth quarter against the Giants, and it torched Dallas in Week 8. Now, it takes on a Raiders team that gave up 27 points in the second half and overtime to Jacksonville and ranks in the bottom half of the league in EPA/Play on defense. 

I lean with Denver to cover the spread, as it’s a more complete team and undefeated at home. 

Pick: Broncos -10 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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