Rangers vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, June 5

Sean Treppedi | Jun 5, 2025

Yandy Diaz's power hitting metrics are pointing us to his home run prop against the Rangers on Thursday. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Tampa Bay has a chance to sweep the Rangers at home on Thursday after Brandon Lower powered the offense to a 5-4 win on Wednesday with a solo shot and an RBI double.

Texas now leads the season series 3-2 after sweeping Tampa at the beginning of the season. 

The Rays have propelled themselves to within 5 ½ games of the Yankees for the lead in the AL East as the Rangers have fallen to 4 ½ games back in third place of the AL West. 

Ryan Pepiot steps in on the hill for Tampa after back-to-back deep outings without having given up an earned run. Leiter challenges him also off a scoreless start in which he threw for 5 ⅔ innings and struck out six. 

I’ll break down how we’re betting this game in the player prop markets along with a prediction.

Rangers vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Rangers +1.5 (-170)
• Rays  -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline

• Rangers (+118)
• Rays (-138)

Total

• Over 9 (+100)
• Under 9 (-122)

Rangers vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

• Rangers: Jack Leiter (4-2, 3.66 ERA)
• Rays: Ryan Pepiot (3-5, 3.21 ERA)

Rangers vs. Rays How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
• Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• How to Watch (TV): Rangers Sports Network, FDSN Sun
• Rangers Record: 29-33
• Rays Record: 32-29

Rangers vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

• Yandy Diaz Home Run (+116 at FanDuel)

Diaz’s home run to fly ball ratio is up almost 4% this season. His exit velocity has also seen a 1% bump as he sits within Statcast’s top six percentile. Historically, Diaz isn’t known for elite power, but he matches up well against fly-ball pitchers like Jack Leiter (43.6% FB%), who is due for regression despite decent surface stats. 

Diaz looks to be a good home run prop target inside Steinbrenner Field: He’s hit seven of his eight long balls there this season and boasts a .407 SLG. Leiter’s fastball velocity is up this season, ranking amongst the top pitchers in the game at 97 mph, but Diaz has been comfortable with five home runs against them. Leiter’s weakness to home runs has been offspeed pitches, which Diaz has hit three off of.

Rangers vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Perhaps the Yankees want to rescind their invitation to let the Rays play at Steinbrenner Field this season. The Rays are hitting significantly better there than on the road, producing a .250/.318/.397 slash line.

Tampa is surging back to the top of the AL East having won seven of its last 10 due to timely hitting and a shutdown bullpen. 

In the last two weeks, the Rays are the sheer No. 1 offense in baseball with a .480 SLG and 134 weighted runs created plus. They also have the No. 5 ranked bullpen that owns a 3.16 ERA.

Pepiot hasn’t pitched less than six innings in five starts and hasn’t allowed more than three runs. I’m looking for Tampa to keep the momentum alive and even out the season series with Texas on Wednesday.

Pick:  Rays (-138 at FanDuel)

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