Red Sox vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 28

The Brewers are favored to sweep the Red Sox on Wednesday.

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta is an interesting prop target on Wednesday. / Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Brewers are back to .500 in the 2025 season, and they’ve taken the first two games of their three-game set against the Boston Red Sox.

On Wednesday, the Brewers are favored to complete the sweep with ace Freddy Peralta on the mound against Boston’s Brayan Bello. 

The Red Sox jumped up to second in the AL East, but they have lost four games in a row to fall into fourth, ahead of only the struggling Baltimore Orioles.

Can Boston salvage this series with a win on Wednesday afternoon?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Wednesday’s series finale. 

Red Sox vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Red Sox +1.5 (-166)
• Brewers -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline

• Red Sox: +130
• Brewers: -155

Total

• 8 (Over -102/Under -118)

Red Sox vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers

• Boston: Brayan Bello (2-1, 4.08 ERA)
• Milwaukee: Freddy Peralta (5-3, 2.55 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Brewers How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, May 28
• Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: American Family Field
• How to Watch (TV): MLB Network, FDSWI, NESN
• Red Sox record: 27-30
• Brewers record: 282-28

Red Sox vs. Brewers Best MLB Prop Bets

Brewers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Freddy Peralta UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+115)

This prop is a little high for Peralta, even though Boston ranks 25th in MLB in strikeouts per game in the 2025 season.

Peralta has failed to pick up seven or more strikeouts in eight of his 11 starts this season, striking out 60 batters in 60 innings of work. The veteran right-hander has not pitched deep into games as of late, failing to get through six innings in three straight starts.

I’m surprised to see the UNDER for this line set at plus money since Peralta has hit this prop in less than half of his 2025 outings. He’s a solid bet to fall short of seven punchouts on Wednesday. 

Red Sox vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the Brewers are the bet to make early with Peralta on the mound: 

The Milwaukee Brewers are aiming to sweep the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday afternoon, and they’ll have their ace on the mound to get it done.

Freddy Peralta (5-3, 2.55 ERA) will make his 12th start of the season, and he’s been really solid in 2025, allowing two or fewer earned runs in nine of his 11 starts. He’s allowed four or fewer earned runs in every start, and the veteran right-hander currently ranks in the 92nd percentile in pitching run value, 63rd percentile in expected ERA and 86th percentile in hard hit percentage.

He’ll take on Boston righty Brayan Bello, who has led the Sox to a 5-2 record in his seven starts despite a shaky 4.08 ERA and 4.88 Fielding Independent Pitching. Bello has allowed 12 runs over his last three starts, and he has failed to work through five innings in each of his last four outings.

The Red Sox have struggled offensively in this series, scoring just three runs overall. That is worrisome since Bello has not pitched well in 2025, ranking in the ninth percentile amongst all pitchers with an expected ERA of 5.50.

While I’d rather avoid the Milwaukee bullpen (4.61 ERA this season), I do think the Brewers will have the lead early on in this game. Peralta has been ultra-consistent on the bump, and Bello has failed to even get through five frames without some issue as of late.

This is an easy bet for the series finale in this interleague clash. 

Pick: Brewers First 5 ML (-154 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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