Red Sox vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, July 18

Sean Treppedi | Jul 17, 2025

Ceddanne Rafaela is much to thank for the Red Sox's 10-game win streak and he has attractive odds to reach another two bases on Friday. / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Perhaps the most marquee matchup in the MLB’s return from the All-Star Break will be the Red Sox’s visit to Wrigley Field. Boston is the hottest team in baseball after winning 10 straight heading into the hiatus while Chicago has been one of the game’s most consistent clubs all year.

Giolito is on an absolute tear, posting a jaw-dropping 0.70 ERA across his last six starts (38⅔ innings), going 5–0 with 37 strikeouts — joining the likes of some of the most legendary pitchers in Red Sox lore. His recent gems include 6 scoreless innings vs. Colorado and a 7 ⅔‑inning, one‑run shellacking of Washington.

Rea has been rock-solid, winning his last three starts while allowing just four runs over 18 ⅔ innings, and he most recently fired seven innings of one‑run, three‑hit ball against the Twins with five strikeouts. 

With home field advantage, oddsmakers are tabbing Chicago as the -124 favorite on Friday. Let’s take a closer look at how we can place a wager.

Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Red Sox +1.5 (-210)
• Cubs -1.5 (+172)

Moneyline

• Red Sox (+106)
• Cubs (-124)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-105)
• Under 8.5 (-115)

Red Sox vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

• Red Sox: Lucas Giolito (6-1, 3.36 ERA)
• Cubs: Colin Rea (7-3, 3.91 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Cubs How to Watch

• Date: Friday, July 18, 2025
• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• How to Watch (TV): NESN, Marque Sports Network
• Red Sox Record: 53-45 
• Cubs Record: 57-38

Red Sox vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop Bet

• Ceddanne Rafaela Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140 at FanDuel)

There’s a handful of Red Sox to target amid this tear, but Rafaela is a name emerging as a bonafide superstar. He’s recorded seven hits, four runs and two homers in just five games this past week, sporting a scorching .412 average.

Facing Colin Rea — a strike-thrower who’s prone to the long ball but has yielded extra-base hits at a middling clip — Rafaela should be primed to capitalize on solid pitches to drive into the gaps. With his aggressive swing profile and electric speed, Rafaela has been the tone-setter for Boston in this renaissance and I love his value to tack on a couple of bases on Friday.

Red Sox vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

The Sox are the sharp play on Friday, being the hotter team with the slight advantage on the mound. Rea’s advanced metrics show he can be vulnerable as he trends toward regression with a 4.95 xERA. He is susceptible to hard contact, reflecting a 41.7% hard-hit rate with a .328 wOBA.

Giolito has been a challenge to hit across the board as of late with a .80 WHIP in July. Speaking of July, no team contends with Boston this month: It leads baseball with a .298/.348/.520 slash line and has posted 135 wRC+. The value here is obvious.

Pick: Red Sox (+106 at FanDuel)

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