Red Sox vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, June 16

Sean Treppedi | Jun 16, 2025

Logan Gilbert returns on Monday after an exceptional rehab assignment. His numbers give way to back his strikeout prop against the Red Sox. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

What a whirlwind of a weekend for the Boston Red Sox. After sweeping their division-leading rival in the Yankees, they traded their franchise player in Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants. 

Devers had just hit a home run in the 2-0 victory at Fenway before getting shipped out to the Bay. The Red Sox now must learn to live without the bat of the three-time All-Star that was their home run and RBI leader. 

As the Red Sox climbed back to above .500 with their Sunday win, they are priced as road dogs against the Mariners in Seattle on Monday. 

Seattle just pulled off a two-game sweep of the Guardians and remain in second place of the AL West by a margin of 4 ½ games. 

Let’s pinpoint where we think there is value in betting on this game. 

Red Sox-Mariners Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Red Sox +1.5 (-146)
• Mariners -1.5 (+122)

Moneyline

• Red Sox (+150)
• Mariners (-178)

Total

• Over 7 (-122)
• Under 7 (+100)

Red Sox-Mariners Probable Pitchers

• Red Sox: Lucas Giolito (2-1, 5.45 ERA)
• Mariners: Logan Gilbert (1-1, 2.37 ERA)

Red Sox-Mariners How to Watch

• Date: Monday, June 16, 2025
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• How to Watch (TV): ROOTNW, NESN
• Red Sox Record: 37-36
• Mariners Record: 36-34

Red Sox-Mariners Best MLB Prop Bet

• Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-124 at FanDuel)

Before landing on the IL, Gilbert was in strong form—posting a 2.37 ERA with 44 strikeouts over just 30 1/3 innings. His Triple-A rehab start was dominant, and his pre-injury numbers this season were elite, including a career-best 2.29 xERA and a 32.5% K-BB rate. Gilbert is renowned for his knack to miss bats, averaging nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings in his MLB career and having recorded 220 strikeouts last season. He's throwing a 37.6 strikeout rate, which translates to Statcast's top 99 percentile on the season.

He’s hit the Over on his strikeout prop in five of his six starts this year, only missing it in his last outing due to an early injury exit. Now healthy and pitching at home, Gilbert faces a Boston team that ranks third in MLB in strikeout rate in 2025, so given the matchup and Gilbert’s strikeout pedigree, he’s well-positioned for a strong return on a surrendering Sox team.

Red Sox-Mariners Prediction and Pick

I’m looking for a Red Sox offense to regress after a five-game streak and the distraction of Devers’ blockbuster departure. While they say trading Devers was related to attitude and culture reasons, they didn’t replace the gaping hole he leaves behind in production.

This says to everyone that despite showing strides over this last week to jump back into the divisional race, they are calling it a season already on 2025. With only Jarren Duran and Roman Anthony grading as above-average bats against right-handed pitching, the lineup is just bereft.

Giolito has not returned to form post-surgery this season, with diminished stuff and strikeout rates nearly half of what they once were. The Mariners are heavily favored for good reason, and I’d follow the line movement enough to bet them on the run line on Monday.

Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+122 at FanDuel)

---

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.