Red Sox vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 23

Sean Treppedi | Jul 23, 2025

Wilyer Abreu's offense has been heating up in July enough to target -130 on his hits prop Wednesday. / Matt Marton-Imagn Images

After falling to the Phillies 4-1 on Tuesday — where Cristopher Sanchez tossed a complete-game four-hitter highlighted by homers from Max Kepler and Kyle Schwarber — the Red Sox will send Lucas Giolito to the mound to avoid sweep.

Giolito (6-2, 3.59 ERA) had a rough outing in Chicago, where he allowed four earned runs over 5.1 innings, though Philly has already gone deep eight times against him in just 108 at-bats.

Jesus Luzardo (8-5, 4.29 ERA) counters for Philadelphia; despite surrendering four runs in 4.2 innings last Friday against the Angels, he has a standout performance against Boston in 2023 — 6.1 scoreless innings — and has held the current Red Sox lineup to just six hits in 26 at-bats.

Here’s my play for the series finale.

Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Run Line

• Red Sox +1.5 (+124)
• Phillies -1.5 (-146)

Moneyline

• Red Sox (-170)
• Phillies (+140)

Total

• Over 8.5 (-122)
• Under 8.5 (+100)

Red Sox vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• Red Sox: Lucas Giolito (6-2, 3.59 ERA)
• Phillies: Jesus Luzardo (8-5, 4.29 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday July 23, 2025
• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Red Sox Record: 54-49
• Phillies Record: 58-43

Red Sox vs. Phillies Prop Bet

• Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 Total Bases (-130 at BetMGM)

I like -130 enough to take Abreu to collect a hit on Wednesday. The Red Sox emerging star leads Boston with 20 home runs and 55 RBIs, and he’s been hot in July, slugging.474 and demonstrating pop with four home runs, nine hits and a double in just 13 games. Luzardo has pitched poorly since May, posting a 5.57 ERA, .302 opponent average, and a 41% hard-hit rate, making him vulnerable to power threats. 

Abreu has feasted on southpaws all year, maintaining a team-best OPS in that split and benefiting from Citizens Bank Park's reputation as one of the league's most homer-friendly venues. Given Luzardo's tendency to surrender damaging contact early and Abreu's penchant for offense as of late, backing Abreu to collect at least two total bases feels like a strong play tonight.

Red Sox vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Despite two low-scoring games to open the series, I think this one is well-positioned to deliver more noise on Wednesday. Boston’s offense has underperformed out of the break since stringing a 10-game streak, but they rank sixth in MLB with a 110 wRC+ against lefties which poses a challenge for Luzardo.

The left-hander has been hard-hit 41% of the time over that stretch and was rocked for four earned runs in just 4.2 innings in his last outing. Giolito appears due for harsh regression with an xERA of 5.06 and a plummeting strikeout rate, all suggesting he’s been more lucky than dominant.

Phillies hitters have slugged eight homers in 108 career at-bats against Giolito, should have their way as they rank sixth in home wRC+ per FanGraphs and the Citizens Bank ranks fifth for home run production in the last three years. 

The Red Sox, for their part, are slashing .276/.331/.474 in July and have 20 homers this month. Luzardo’s recent volatility and Giolito’s contact-heavy profile could be a recipe for fireworks.

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Pick: Over 8.5 (+100 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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